Iran has intensified attacks on oil tankers navigating the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategic maritime passages for crude oil exports, but shipments continue to flow in substantial volumes despite the heightened risks. This month alone, 26 vessels have been struck in the waterway, marking the most dangerous period for shipping since the war involving Iran began in late February. A recent incident resulted in the sinking of a 730-foot container ship after it was hit by a projectile.

Under the protection of the U.S. military, tanker traffic through the strait had increased, helping Middle Eastern oil exports approach pre-conflict levels in September. Although Iran’s escalated assaults appear aimed at disrupting this recovery, maritime tracking data indicate that the volume of oil exports remains relatively stable.

According to TankerTrackers.com, an average of more than 12 million barrels of crude oil per day passed through the strait in October, slightly exceeding September’s figures. Conversely, Kpler, another monitoring firm, reported nearly 10 million barrels per day this month, down from roughly 11 million barrels in September. Both firms note that actual tanker movements are challenging to measure precisely because vessels often deactivate tracking transponders while transiting the strait, requiring analysts to rely on satellite imagery and other indirect data. Their estimates are frequently updated as new information becomes available.

Despite the ongoing exports, total oil flow through the strait remains well below the approximately 17 million barrels per day recorded before the war’s outbreak. Some maritime experts suggest that the increased frequency of attacks has caused certain ship operators to reconsider using the passage. Dimitris Maniatis of Marisks, a risk management consultancy, indicated that some tankers initially destined for the strait have withdrawn to avoid the danger.

Alternative routes have played a significant role in maintaining Middle Eastern oil exports. Persian Gulf countries have accelerated shipments through pipelines that bypass the strait, sending around 5 million barrels per day via these channels in October. When combined with tanker volumes, total exports from the region approach 17 million barrels per day, still beneath the pre-war level of over 19 million barrels daily.

However, these pipelines are not immune to attacks. Saudi Arabia was forced to temporarily shut down its East-West pipeline last month following a strike attributed to an Iranian-backed militia. This reflects the broader regional conflict dynamics, with Iran leveraging control over maritime routes and supporting proxy groups to exert pressure on the United States, Israel, and their allies.

Since the conflict began, Iran’s activities had effectively closed the strait early on, but the initiation of U.S. naval protection efforts in May allowed tankers to resume more frequent passages. Simultaneously, a U.S.-led naval blockade restricts Iran’s own oil exports through the waterway.

The conflict has contributed to a significant increase in global oil prices and shipping costs. Freight charges for oil shipments from the Persian Gulf to East Asia have risen from approximately $3 to over $30 per barrel. On the trading front, Brent crude recently approached $106 a barrel. Analysts emphasize that prices are unlikely to stabilize at pre-war levels without a lasting peace agreement between the United States and Iran. Some expect Iran may escalate attacks on shipping to maintain pressure. Noam Raydan of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said further escalation seems probable.

The recent surge in tanker attacks raises questions regarding the efficacy of the U.S. military’s protection operation against Iran’s use of drones and missiles to target vessels. Captain Tim Hawkins, a spokesperson for U.S. Central Command overseeing the protection mission, stated that despite Iranian aggression, transits continue and that the command remains vigilant, coordinating with regional partners and the shipping industry to safeguard commercial traffic. He noted that 1.25 billion barrels of oil have passed through the strait over recent months with U.S. support and reported 19 million barrels moved through the passage on a single day this week.

Meanwhile, tensions in neighboring Yemen have escalated as Houthi forces—an Iranian-backed militia—launched attacks on Saudi infrastructure. They targeted facilities owned by Saudi Aramco and struck King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, killing at least 13 people and wounding hundreds. The Houthis’ control over parts of Yemen along the Red Sea poses additional threats to tanker shipments that carry oil transported through the East-West pipeline on Saudi Arabia’s western coast.

Despite ongoing hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz, Persian Gulf oil producers have increasingly relied on pipeline routes to mitigate risks in the maritime corridor, maintaining significant export capacity amid the regional conflict.