In July, a newly negotiated peace agreement between Iran and the United States was abruptly derailed following a series of attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions between the two nations and reigniting conflict. According to multiple Iranian officials, Revolutionary Guards members, and experts, a hard-line faction within Iran acted independently to sabotage the deal despite efforts by moderate pragmatists in the government to pursue diplomacy.

The incident began when Iranian forces opened fire on three commercial vessels, including a Qatari LNG tanker, setting one ablaze and damaging others. Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian, who had been in Iraq attending funeral ceremonies for the late supreme leader, was shocked by the attacks and quickly demanded explanations from General Ahmad Vahidi, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). General Vahidi reportedly denied prior knowledge or authorization of the strikes, indicating that many senior officials, including members of the Supreme National Security Council, had been kept uninformed.

Investigations traced the decision to attack the ships to Hossein Taeb, a cleric and influential former intelligence chief within the IRGC who had long opposed the peace deal. Taeb, recently appointed as head of the Basij militia, a force tasked with suppressing domestic dissent, is said to have convinced Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, that the agreement was a strategic error. Taeb’s faction viewed the deal as a concession detrimental to Iranian interests and sought to reverse it through escalation.

Internal divisions in Iran’s leadership deepened after the attacks, with reports of heated confrontations, accusations of betrayal, and threatened resignations among senior military officials. These tensions coincided with ongoing uncertainty surrounding the whereabouts and involvement of Ayatollah Khamenei, who assumed office in March but has remained largely unseen and unheard in public. Questions about his health and engagement in state affairs have fueled speculation, as Iranian officials expressed frustration over the lack of clear guidance from the supreme leader.

While Tehran officially blamed the United States for violating aspects of the peace deal—citing Israeli attacks on Hezbollah, frozen assets, and foreign vessels traversing disputed waters—many Iranian insiders, including Pezeshkian, privately doubted this narrative. In response to the attacks, the United States launched retaliatory airstrikes against Iran, leading to further escalation. Iran, in turn, increased attacks on American naval vessels and orchestrated allied militia actions targeting regional oil facilities, marking a significant widening of hostilities.

Within Iran, debates have persisted regarding the path forward: whether to seek renewed negotiations or to intensify military confrontation to break the U.S. naval blockade impairing Iran’s economy. Hard-line generals pushed for escalation, proposing coordinated attacks with allied groups in Yemen and Iraq, aiming to raise the cost of conflict for the United States and its allies. Conversely, moderates, including Pezeshkian and parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibat, cautioned that these actions risked deeper war and economic hardship.

By early September, hard-line factions appeared to have gained dominance, signaling a phase of increased confrontation between Iran and the United States. Leadership changes followed, including the appointment of General Mohsen Rezaei to lead the National Security Council, reflecting a consolidation of hard-line influence amid the country’s fractured political landscape.