Tensions between Iran and the United States escalated over control of the Strait of Hormuz this past weekend, threatening to undermine a fragile ceasefire agreement signed earlier this month. Iran reaffirmed its assertion that it would exercise full management over the strategic waterway, a crucial chokepoint through which about 20% of the world’s oil typically passes. Iranian officials demanded that all ships obtain permission from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) before transiting the strait, signaling a departure from previously agreed terms under the memorandum of understanding (MoU) that aimed to guarantee free and safe passage.

The latest flare-up followed Iranian attacks on two commercial vessels, including the Singapore-flagged container ship Ever Lovely and the Panama-flagged tanker M/T Kiku, which was transporting oil from Qatar. Iran contended that the Ever Lovely violated its designated routing by using a corridor near Omani waters instead of the one close to Iran’s shore, alleging that such actions undermined its control of the strait. In response to these attacks, the U.S. military conducted airstrikes targeting ten Iranian military sites believed to facilitate these aggressive actions.

The reciprocal strikes further escalated tensions, with Iran retaliating by launching missile and drone attacks on U.S. allies Bahrain and Kuwait. Both Gulf states condemned the assaults, framing them as violations of their sovereignty. Iran, in turn, denounced the U.S. strikes as breaches of the ceasefire agreement, accusing Washington of violating its commitments. The cycle of attacks and counterattacks contributed to a sharp decline in maritime traffic through the strait, dropping from 40 to 50 vessels per day earlier in the week to just 10 on Saturday, effectively returning to the low levels seen before the peace talks.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi emphasized that Iran would maintain sole control over the strait for the next 30 days, threatening that any deviation from this arrangement would exacerbate tensions and delay the full reopening of the passage. He reaffirmed Iran’s commitment to reopening the strait to prewar levels of traffic within that timeframe, referencing the terms outlined in the MoU, which stipulated a 60-day window during which safe passage would be maintained without fees.

However, the U.S. government, including President Donald Trump and U.S. officials, rejected Iran’s claim to unilaterally manage the strait or impose tolls. Trump warned that if Iran continued its provocations and breached the ceasefire, the United States might resume full military actions against Tehran. U.S. ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz stated that the administration would not tolerate Iranian attacks on international shipping, underscoring Washington’s commitment to responding firmly.

The ongoing confrontations have highlighted deep divisions over the interpretation and implementation of the ceasefire deal brokered earlier this month under Pakistani mediation. While both sides have agreed to refrain from further military operations, accusations of violations have continued, complicating efforts to reach a comprehensive peace agreement that also addresses other regional concerns, including Iran’s nuclear program.

Meanwhile, the regional security situation remains fragile, with related conflicts persisting in Lebanon and between Israel and Iran-backed groups. Iranian officials have linked a comprehensive peace settlement in the Gulf to broader regional issues such as Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon, further underscoring the complexity of achieving lasting stability in the Middle East.