Despite eight months of American and Israeli airstrikes targeting its military-industrial infrastructure, Iran has maintained its capacity to produce ballistic missiles and drones, according to Western officials familiar with intelligence assessments. The officials, speaking anonymously, indicated that Tehran has preserved key elements of its weapons manufacturing capabilities and retains significant stockpiles of ballistic missiles and certain anti-ship weapons, with the ability to manufacture additional munitions relatively quickly.
These findings come amid ongoing debate within the United States about potential further military action against Iran. U.S. President Donald Trump recently announced a pause in offensive operations until after the November midterm elections, despite earlier considerations of renewed strikes in response to Iran’s escalating attacks on international commercial shipping near the Strait of Hormuz. The delay could afford Iran additional time to recover production capabilities and replenish its arsenal, Western assessments warn.
Contrasting with these intelligence reports, White House officials have maintained that U.S.-led efforts have severely degraded Iran’s military potential. White House spokesperson Anna Kelly stated that operations such as “Operation Midnight Hammer” had devastated Iran’s nuclear facilities and that “Operation Epic Fury” had effectively dismantled its conventional missile production and defensive capabilities. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth similarly asserted in late September that Iran’s military industrial base had been destroyed.
However, independent analysis underscores uncertainty regarding the full extent of damage to Iran’s missile industry. A report in September cited U.S. and Middle Eastern sources indicating that Iran had resumed limited ballistic missile production using existing components, including from underground facilities, although manufacturing remained below pre-conflict levels. Reconstructions and repairs to missile launchers and access to underground sites during lulls in fighting have reportedly bolstered Iran’s capacity, without necessarily restoring it to pre-war strength.
The scale of Iran’s missile stockpile remains a subject of debate. Israeli military estimates previously placed Tehran’s ballistic missile inventory at around 2,500 units before the air campaign, while Western intelligence assessments as of June suggested that about three-quarters of these munitions remain intact. Analysts acknowledge that, although substantial damage to production infrastructure is likely, Iran’s ability to rapidly rebuild certain elements, possibly with external assistance, complicates precise assessments.
Compounding these concerns, Russia is believed to have supplied Iran with missiles, a claim consistent with earlier intelligence but one that Russian officials have not publicly addressed.
Iran’s increased attacks on vessels in strategic maritime corridors, including at least 10 ships struck near the Strait of Hormuz in recent weeks as reported by Britain’s Royal Navy, have intensified fears regarding the security of global shipping and energy supplies. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has issued warnings that it could deploy varied weapons and expand its targeting scope if the United States launches further offensives.
The continuation of Iran’s missile and drone capabilities amid economic pressures and the U.S. naval blockade suggests Tehran may increasingly resort to asymmetric operations, including maritime strikes, to counterbalance its conventional military disadvantages and impose costs on its adversaries.