Improved relations between the United States and China could open new avenues for diplomacy with Iran, potentially easing regional tensions and encouraging Tehran to return to negotiations, experts say.

At recent summit meetings in Beijing in May and Washington in September, Iran featured on the agenda as a key point of discussion between the two global powers. While China refrained from explicit mention of Iran in the May communiqué, the September joint statement included a clear assertion that Iran must refrain from developing nuclear weapons. Alongside this, both countries agreed on principles regarding the free passage of international waterways.

Chinese President Xi Jinping, during talks in Washington last month, underscored hopes that the U.S. and Iran resolve their differences through dialogue. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian acknowledged this gesture in a social media post. U.S. President Donald Trump and Xi are anticipated to meet twice more this year, providing further opportunities for engagement amid concerns in Tehran that Iran could be leveraged in broader U.S.-China competition.

Analysts highlight a shift in China’s rhetoric toward greater alignment with Washington on Iran since the earlier summit. Niu Xinchun, director of the China-Arab Research Institute at Ningxia University, noted that the evolving rhetoric reflects increased communication and shared understanding between the two powers. He added that a more stable U.S.-China relationship benefits Iran by offering Tehran a potentially more effective channel to influence Washington, beyond relying on regional intermediaries like Pakistan and Qatar or strained Russia-U.S. ties.

During bilateral talks, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reaffirmed Beijing’s continued support for Tehran, called for a political solution with the United States, and cautioned against escalation of conflicts spilling into Yemen. Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi also visited Beijing ahead of Trump’s state visit in May.

With the Middle East conflict ongoing for several months, Iran is expected to remain a consistent topic in U.S.-China discussions. Ali Salehian, senior researcher at the Governance and Policy Think Tank in Tehran, said Iran views improved U.S.-China ties cautiously but recognizes opportunities, pointing to China’s role in mediating between Iran and Saudi Arabia. He noted Tehran’s desire to strengthen strategic relations with Beijing and suggested China could play a more proactive role in fostering regional stability.

Conversely, Jesse Marks, founder of Washington-based Rihla Research and Advisory, highlighted internal divisions within Iran’s leadership between the diplomatic establishment and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. He observed that while Iran expects Beijing to maintain political support, Tehran remains skeptical of closer U.S.-China cooperation. Marks also cautioned that despite potential gains in nuclear coordination, China’s influence on Middle East security is limited, requiring it to balance interests carefully, particularly regarding energy and navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.

Diplomatic progress between Iran and the United States has stalled following the U.S. rejection of Iranian proposals to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end hostilities. The United States is reportedly planning to deploy a third aircraft carrier to the region, with Trump signaling possible military action post-midterm elections in November. Iranian officials have expressed readiness for genuine diplomacy but remain prepared for conflict escalation.

Jodie Wen, a fellow at Tsinghua University’s Centre for International Security and Strategy, described China’s approach as cautious and deliberate, avoiding heavy-handed intervention common in U.S. policy. Wen emphasized that despite involvement from European and regional actors, the U.S. and China remain the primary influencers on the Iran issue. She asserted that the significance of the U.S.-China summit lies in its potential to establish strategic stability that could gradually alleviate regional tensions.