Iran has issued a warning that any renewed air strikes by the United States or Israel could provoke a broad retaliation targeting not only military installations but also civilian infrastructure across the Persian Gulf region. This escalation in rhetoric and threat signals Tehran's intent to respond decisively to potential attacks.

Officials indicate that Iran’s arsenal includes hundreds to thousands of ballistic missiles, alongside drone capabilities, with production reportedly continuing at underground facilities using stockpiled components. Early in the ongoing conflict, Iran launched strikes causing significant damage to U.S. military bases, embassies, and the U.S. 5th Fleet headquarters in Bahrain. Additionally, Iranian-backed attacks have targeted key energy and industrial sites in the United Arab Emirates, a major gas facility in Qatar, and airports in Dubai, Kuwait, and Bahrain.

Tehran’s threats now extend to hitting airports, pipelines, and other civilian infrastructure in neighboring Gulf countries, raising concerns amid dwindling stockpiles of air-defense interceptors among U.S., Arab, and Israeli forces. While Iran’s missile and drone manufacturing facilities were heavily damaged in previous strikes—U.S. officials claim up to 90 percent destruction of Iran’s relevant military-industrial base—analysts believe Tehran is prepared to accept significant risks to deter adversaries by imposing immediate and sustained costs.

Sina Toossi, an analyst at the Centre for International Policy, explained that the prevailing sentiment in Tehran views deterrence as necessitating substantial retaliatory actions against perceived threats. This posture is reflected in the activities of Houthi militants in Yemen, which receive training and technology assistance from Iran. The Houthis have carried out missile and drone attacks against Saudi Arabian fuel refineries and disrupted air traffic in Riyadh, as well as temporarily shutting down a key East-West pipeline, affecting oil supplies. Iran could emulate these tactics on a broader scale if hostilities escalate.

Diplomatic efforts to resolve the conflict have faltered in recent months. Meanwhile, the U.S. has positioned a third aircraft carrier strike group and an additional Marine expeditionary unit in the Middle East, signaling preparation for a potential increase in military operations. U.S. officials have indicated that the combination of deteriorating diplomacy and mounting threats heightens the likelihood of conflict escalation.

In response to the increased risk profile, the U.S. military has begun relocating personnel from vulnerable bases, and the State Department has ordered nonemergency government employees and family members to depart from Saudi Arabia due to threats from Houthi forces. Similar adjustments have been made across other diplomatic missions in the region to reduce the American footprint amid growing security concerns.