Iran has indicated it will respond in kind if the United States honors its commitments under a June interim agreement aimed at pausing hostilities between the two countries. The warning came amid escalating tensions following recent exchanges of fire that signaled the first direct military confrontations since late July, along with reports of attacks on oil tankers near the strategic Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint for global oil shipments.
The ongoing conflict, now six months old, had predominantly been waged through economic sanctions and blockades before deteriorating into limited military strikes. On Sunday, the United States targeted Iran’s Larak Island, prompting Iran to retaliate with missile attacks on two U.S. air bases in Jordan overnight. President Donald Trump warned on Monday that Washington would respond forcefully if attacked again, stating, “We’re going to hit them hard.” However, he simultaneously reassured that these developments did not signify a return to full-scale war.
A senior Iranian official described the recent missile exchanges as a “limited and contained confrontation” but emphasized that Tehran would deliver a strong response to any further assaults. Both sides appear reluctant to escalate into broader conflict, but their mutual threats underscore the fragile nature of a standoff that could rapidly reignite active hostilities.
Iran has reiterated its condition that it will permit free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz only if the United States complies with the terms of the June Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), which both nations signed but which swiftly fell apart. The MOU declared a cessation of hostilities and initiated a 60-day window for more extensive negotiations, a deadline now passed without resolution.
Speaking at a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian stated, “If the US returns to its commitments under the Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately reciprocate.” He also asserted that war served no one's interests and affirmed Tehran’s willingness to continue diplomatic efforts.
Despite these statements, no tangible progress toward renewed negotiations has been reported. The resurgence of hostilities and uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz have heightened concerns over potential disruptions to global oil supplies. Brent crude futures rose 1.3 percent on Tuesday in response to the heightened risk. Analysts such as John Evans of PVM cautioned that the recent missile exchanges validate expectations that, although not a permanent war, the conflict between the United States and Iran could persist for an extended period.
Compounding these worries, two Saudi supertankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz were reportedly struck by unidentified projectiles late Monday, according to data from maritime tracking firms Marisks and Kpler. The attacks fueled fears of further disruptions in a region responsible for a significant share of the world’s crude exports.
Since the conflict’s onset in late February—marked by U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian targets—thousands have lost their lives, primarily in Iran and Lebanon. The United States has increasingly turned to economic measures to compel Tehran to lift its blockade of the strait and de-escalate tensions. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently warned that countries engaging economically with Iran risk sanctions, with additional secondary sanctions expected to be announced weekly, beginning with targeting Iranian financial institutions.