The ongoing conflict in the Middle East is driving significant shifts in energy strategies across developing Asia, as nations grapple with disruptions to global liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies. The war, now in its fifth month, has blocked access through key maritime chokepoints, notably the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea, severing critical LNG supply lines from major exporters such as Qatar.

For decades, LNG, transported in supercooled liquid form, was promoted as a stable, affordable solution to meet the rising energy demand of emerging Asian economies. With expanded export capacities in the United States and Qatar, expectations had been high for abundant global LNG availability by 2030. However, the current Middle East crisis has undercut this vision, exposing the vulnerability of relying heavily on imports from volatile regions.

Asian buyers, including the Philippines and other countries in the region, are now intensifying efforts to develop domestic energy resources to reduce exposure to external market fluctuations. In the Philippines, for example, Prime Infra, an energy infrastructure company operating natural gas power plants in Batangas, has accelerated drilling efforts in the Malampaya offshore gas field to extend its productive life by at least six years. The field had seen limited activity over the past decade, but recent geopolitical tensions have renewed focus on maximizing local resources.

Renewable energy projects have also gained momentum. The country’s largest solar facility began operations in March, shortly after the outbreak of the Iran War, which caused a 20 percent drop in global LNG supplies and propelled energy prices upward. Meralco PowerGen, a utility-backed firm with investments in solar, coal, and gas-fired plants, has cited this timing as a boon for demonstrating the potential for increased national energy self-sufficiency.

Despite the Philippines’ 2020 moratorium on new coal plants to encourage cleaner alternatives, concerns over energy stability and affordability have prompted a reconsideration of coal’s role alongside renewables and domestically sourced gas. Similar recalibrations are occurring elsewhere in Southeast Asia, with countries such as Indonesia and Vietnam expanding coal generation while fast-tracking renewable energy projects. Vietnam’s Vingroup recently abandoned plans for a large LNG import terminal in favor of developing a renewable energy-powered manufacturing hub.

These developments mark a growing divergence in global energy strategies. While the U.S. and Japan continue emphasizing fossil fuel infrastructure, China has prioritized insulating itself from energy import risks by investing heavily in coal, renewables, electrification, and nuclear power, as well as exporting renewable energy technology to the region.

Industry analysts note that subdued LNG demand in Asia could challenge exporters who had anticipated a surge in consumption. Keisuke Sadamori, a former International Energy Agency director, highlighted doubts about further LNG infrastructure investments in Southeast Asia given current supply uncertainties. However, others remain optimistic about LNG’s long-term prospects. Energy giant Shell projected a 65 percent increase in global LNG demand by 2050, driven largely by South and Southeast Asia.

Edward McCartin, CEO of Energy World Corporation, supports a diversified energy mix that includes renewables, natural gas, hydro, geothermal, and coal to meet the region’s needs, viewing LNG as an important complement to intermittent renewable sources.

In the Philippines, government officials are actively reassessing national energy policies in light of the conflict’s impact. Michael Sinocruz, director of the Energy Policy and Planning Bureau, emphasized the necessity of balancing energy sources to ensure reliability and affordability, stating that renewables alone cannot meet future demands.

The current energy instability has prompted a broader recognition across developing Asia of the importance of enhancing energy independence amid geopolitical uncertainties.