Travel disruptions and rising airfares are expected to continue throughout the school holiday period and into the autumn as the ongoing conflict in Iran impacts jet fuel supplies. Aviation expert Richard Curran has warned that passengers should brace for persistent challenges until the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — a crucial oil supply route — is resolved.

The concern intensified after Gatwick Airport officials on Sunday reported they were “running out of fuel,” although they described the shortage as stemming from a temporary technical issue at a nearby fuel farm rather than direct supply interruptions. Nonetheless, Curran indicated this incident may signal wider problems, suggesting similar fuel shortages could soon affect other airports across the UK.

Curran outlined a "reasonable worst-case scenario" for this autumn, estimating a 25 percent rise in airfares, alongside reduced flight frequency and fewer available destinations. Airlines are already reportedly considering cutting back on services to airports facing fuel supply constraints and scaling back less profitable routes. As a consequence, passengers can expect both higher prices and increased disruption, including possible cancellations. According to Curran’s analysis, a typical £100 flight ticket could increase to around £125 by the autumn.

Travellers have already experienced significant price increases over the past year, with the cheapest plane tickets up approximately 25 percent compared to 12 months ago. This inflation in fares has been attributed in part to the impact of fuel supply issues linked to the conflict in the Gulf region.

While Gatwick’s fuel shortage was attributed to a technical problem by airport authorities, the broader aviation sector remains concerned about the supply risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz blockade, which has hampered oil shipments from the region. The resulting volatility in jet fuel availability is seen as a key driver behind the anticipated disruption and price hikes.

In summary, the current geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran and the Strait of Hormuz are creating uncertainty for UK air travel. Industry experts urge passengers to prepare for continued service interruptions and higher costs until the underlying fuel supply challenges are resolved.