U.S. intelligence agencies assess that Iran’s new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, is more inclined than his predecessor, his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to pursue the development of nuclear weapons. This evaluation stems from officials familiar with classified intelligence who say Mojtaba Khamenei’s approach marks a shift from the previous leader’s stance, which included a public renunciation of nuclear weapons capabilities.
Ali Khamenei was killed early in the current conflict during an Israeli strike reportedly supported by U.S. intelligence, an event that has significantly altered Iran’s leadership landscape. While many in the past believed Ali Khamenei’s reluctance to build an atomic arsenal was genuine, the new supreme leader, though not publicly advocating nuclear weapon development, is perceived by U.S. officials as heading a hard-line government intent on advancing Iran’s nuclear capabilities.
American intelligence suggests that the post-war Iranian administration has asserted greater control over strategic points such as the Strait of Hormuz and has taken a more uncompromising position in diplomatic engagements. Some officials warn that military actions against Tehran and leadership decapitation efforts by the United States and Israel may have strengthened Iran’s resolve to enhance its nuclear program, posing a complex challenge for U.S. policy.
Most intelligence regarding Mojtaba Khamenei’s views dates to the period before the ongoing conflict. Reports indicate that he sustained serious injuries early in the war, resulting in reduced public appearances and limited communications, partly to avoid becoming a target of aerial attacks. Despite these constraints, U.S. officials believe he continues to lead the government, though his authority and influence are considered diminished compared to those of his father, who ruled Iran for over 36 years.
The intelligence analysis emerges amid deliberations by former U.S. President Donald Trump and his administration on whether to escalate military operations against Iran. Confirmation that the supreme leader might actively pursue nuclear weapons could provide strategic rationale for intensifying the campaign.
Although Tehran has not officially resumed its nuclear program, it has undertaken measures to safeguard nuclear infrastructure following U.S. strikes on key facilities last year and intermittent ceasefires during the current conflict. U.S. officials report that Iran has relocated some centrifuges to a fortified underground site in central Iran, identified by the United States as Pickaxe Mountain, highlighting ongoing concerns about Tehran’s nuclear ambitions and the heightened risks associated with regional instability.