An armed coalition comprising five Baluch groups, including the US-designated terrorist organization Jaish al-Adl, has launched a new insurgent front against Iranian government forces in southeastern Iran. The coalition has targeted elements of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Basij militia, and Fatemiyoun Brigade, an Afghan militia aligned with Tehran, in the restive Sistan-Baluchestan province. This development adds to the multiple security challenges confronting the Iranian regime amid ongoing domestic dissent and tensions with the United States and Israel.

The coalition, formed in 2025, unites local Baluch groups with diverse ideologies—including separatist, Islamist, and federalist factions—with Jaish al-Adl as its most prominent member. According to the coalition’s military coordinator, who spoke anonymously, the group has recently enhanced its capabilities by acquiring drones and heavy weapons, including arms smuggled via neighboring countries. He indicated plans to extend attacks to Iraqi militias allied with Iran, such as elements of Hashd al-Shaabi, and announced intentions to carry out operations in Tehran with Kurdish fighters set to join the campaign.

Sistan-Baluchestan, bordering Pakistan, has been a flashpoint for cross-border militancy, previously prompting tit-for-tat strikes between Iran and Pakistan. The region’s strategic importance includes the port of Chabahar, which serves as a vital transit hub connecting Iran to the Indian Ocean and facilitating Indian access to Afghanistan and Central Asia, bypassing Pakistan. Escalating violence there raises concerns about trade disruptions and regional instability involving Iran, Pakistan, India, and Afghanistan.

The coalition asserts a political vision beyond regime change, advocating for a federal Iran, though its reliance on armed struggle alongside political activism complicates its position within broader opposition circles. Iranian opposition leader Reza Pahlavi has criticized similar alliances of ethnic armed groups, viewing them as threats to Iran’s territorial integrity, and has not endorsed the Baluch coalition.

The conflict carries deep local implications. Residents of Sistan-Baluchestan express concern over Afghan and Fatemiyoun militias’ presence and the rise of armed Baluch groups, fearing cultural and economic destabilization as well as possible separatist ambitions. Meanwhile, some analysts downplay the likelihood of significant territorial fragmentation; Denmark-based political expert Hamed Fathi suggests that historic and political factors make secession unlikely and that previously separated territories might reintegrate should the regime collapse.

Observers attribute the insurgency to long-standing poverty and discrimination against the Baluch population, who are Sunni Muslims in a predominantly Shia nation, coupled with economic marginalization despite the region’s natural resources and strategic position. Charity worker and journalist Ziba Momtaz highlights the regime’s neglect of local development as a driver of recruitment to militant groups.

Conversely, some analysts argue the regime exploits fears of fragmentation to maintain its grip on power, while neighboring countries may be encouraging armed factions to exert pressure on Tehran. The situation exposes Iran to a complex nexus of challenges: internal armed resistance on its southeastern and western borders, ongoing confrontations with foreign adversaries, and widespread domestic unrest demanding political change.