The burial of Iran’s late supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the holy city of Mashhad this week marked the end of an era that spanned nearly 37 years, during which he exerted profound influence over the country’s political and religious institutions. Khamenei’s death in February, reportedly as a result of a US-Israeli strike early in the ongoing conflict between Tehran and Washington, has ushered in a period of uncertainty as the nation adjusts to the leadership of his son, Mojtaba Khamenei.

Mojtaba, who was appointed supreme leader in March, has largely remained out of public view since taking power. Analysts and insiders suggest this reflects both security concerns and the challenges inherent in succeeding his father, whose revolutionary credentials and authority remain unmatched. Despite this, Mojtaba is widely expected to exercise ultimate decision-making authority while relying more heavily on powerful institutions, particularly the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which has expanded its reach over security, foreign policy, and the economy during the ongoing war.

Under its new commander Ahmad Vahidi—who was publicly seen for the first time in months during Khamenei’s funeral ceremonies—the IRGC is anticipated to strengthen its role in supporting the new leader amid Iran’s complex domestic and international crises. Mojtaba is also expected to depend on an extensive network of religious organizations, wealthy patrons, and regional proxies such as Hezbollah, even as some of these groups have weakened over recent years.

Iran’s internal situation prior to Khamenei’s death was already precarious. Prolonged international sanctions, economic stagnation, and political isolation sparked widespread unrest early this year, culminating in mass protests and a harsh government crackdown that left thousands dead and further strained the regime’s legitimacy.

The government sought to use the six-day funeral procession—during which Khamenei’s coffin was transported across Iran and into neighboring Iraq—to demonstrate resilience and maintain its grip on power. High-profile figures including parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, judiciary chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, and even former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad appeared in public, signaling regime unity. Mojtaba’s absence from public events has led to speculation, though officials affirm he remains in control and is recovering from injuries sustained during the attack that killed his father and several family members.

Mojtaba’s initial policy decisions indicate a cautious and pragmatic approach. Notably, he authorized the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and resumed negotiations with the United States on a possible deal to end the conflict, despite publicly expressing opposition to such talks in principle. Responsibility for delivering economic benefits and securing frozen Iranian assets was delegated to President Masoud Pezeshkian, suggesting a continuation of the delicate balancing act Khamenei employed to manage competing factions within the regime.

Yet this diplomatic pragmatism faces significant internal opposition. Large segments of the regime’s conservative base reject negotiations with Washington, viewing any compromise as a betrayal of Khamenei’s revolutionary legacy. Funeral attendees carried banners calling for retaliation and chanted anti-American slogans, reflecting deep-seated hostility toward engagement with the West. This hardline stance risks further alienating critical sectors of Iranian society, including the urban middle class and a growing cohort of secular and younger citizens.

Political observers suggest that while Iran may tighten political controls domestically, especially against dissent, it might also experience some social liberalization. Hardline elements within the system foresee an era of increased institutional control, with the IRGC playing a greater enforcement role and younger loyalists rising within the ranks. Ultimately, many analysts agree that the regime’s future direction will hinge on its ability to craft a durable agreement with the United States and to navigate the intricate demands of governance amid ongoing regional and international tensions.