A recent U.S. waiver allowing Iran to sell oil and receive payments in U.S. dollars has provided Tehran with a potential influx of billions of dollars following years of sanctions and the recent conflict disrupting the region. Despite this development, economic experts caution that meaningful relief for ordinary Iranians may still be months away.

The waiver, announced last week, aims to ease tensions by reopening shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz and permitting Iran to resume oil exports. Tanker tracking data indicates that Iran’s oil shipments have already begun to increase, with some analysts estimating the government could earn up to $10 billion over the next two months from these sales. This financial boost comes alongside reported agreements between the U.S. and Iran to halt recent hostilities and recommence diplomatic negotiations.

However, analysts and Iranian businesspeople warn that the economic challenges facing the country run far deeper. Inflation in Iran reached 88.6% year-over-year in June, while the national currency hit record lows. More than one million jobs have been lost due to the combined effects of war and sanctions, compounded by disruptions such as a months-long internet blackout that has particularly affected younger demographics and online commerce.

Gregory Brew, a senior analyst at Eurasia Group, described the oil sales waiver as a short-term "windfall" but insufficient to revive Iran’s broader economy. Reconstruction costs related to damage sustained during the conflict are estimated at hundreds of billions of dollars, dwarfing the immediate fiscal benefits of increased oil revenue. Infrastructure damage extends to over 150,000 civilian buildings nationwide, including 51,000 homes in Tehran, and the country’s energy sector suffered substantial harm, with repair costs projected at nearly $19 billion.

Businesses remain cautious as uncertainty persists over the durability of the agreement and the potential for renewed sanctions or conflict. An auto-parts importer who faced layoffs and inventory reductions during the conflict said that planning remains nearly impossible without a comprehensive and lasting peace agreement.

Economic forecasts reflect the severity of the situation. The International Monetary Fund predicts Iran’s gross domestic product will contract by 6.1% this year, the sharpest decline since the 1980s, while inflation is expected to average close to 70%. Recent price spikes, including nearly doubling the cost of staple foods like traditional Persian bread varieties in Tehran, have intensified hardship for many citizens.

Skepticism among Iranians about the new deal’s potential is rooted in history. The 2015 nuclear accord brought some relief and increased oil exports but was later undermined when the United States reimposed sanctions during the Trump administration. Many Iranians express concern that any renewed financial gains may primarily strengthen the government and its regional allies rather than improve living standards.

In sum, while the U.S.-Iran oil sales waiver and the pause in hostilities offer a measure of economic respite for the Iranian government, the country’s broader economic recovery will require sustained diplomatic progress, further sanctions relief, and substantial reconstruction efforts to address the deeply entrenched challenges facing the population.