Two months into its conflict with the United States and Israel, Iran faces an unprecedented fragmentation at the highest levels of its leadership, marking a notable departure from the centralized authority that has defined the Islamic Republic since its founding in 1979. The killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on the war’s first day and the subsequent rise of his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who remains seriously wounded, have reshaped Tehran’s power structure, placing greater influence in the hands of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

Historically, the supreme leader held undisputed control over all critical state matters. However, current sources indicate that Mojtaba’s role is largely symbolic, with real decision-making authority residing with IRGC commanders. Three individuals familiar with internal deliberations describe Mojtaba as more of a legitimizing figure rather than an active commander issuing orders. The wartime environment has solidified the role of a hard-line inner circle dominated by the Supreme National Security Council (SNSC), the supreme leader’s office, and the IRGC, which now shapes both military operations and political strategy.

A senior Pakistani official with knowledge of ongoing peace talks mediated by Islamabad characterized Iranian decision-making as slow and fragmented, noting it often takes Tehran several days to respond to proposals. While some analysts see this as a sign of internal disarray, the primary challenge to negotiations remains the stark gap between what Washington offers and what the IRGC’s hardliners are willing to accept.

Iran’s diplomatic facade in talks has been represented by Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi, recently joined by parliament speaker Mohammed Baqer Qalibaf—a former IRGC commander and prominent political figure who has emerged as a vital link between Iran’s political, security, and clerical circles during the war. On the operational side, IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi has been identified by Iranian and Pakistani sources as the key interlocutor, notably during the ceasefire discussions.

Mojtaba Khamenei was severely injured in the initial strikes that claimed his father’s life and left him with significant wounds. Due to his condition and security constraints, he has not made public appearances and communicates primarily through aides or limited audio means.

Iran submitted a fresh proposal to Washington on April 27, suggesting staged negotiations that would initially sideline nuclear issues until the war ends and disputes over Gulf shipping are settled. Washington, however, insists that nuclear matters be addressed from the outset.

Experts highlight entrenched stances on both sides, with Iran’s IRGC cautious about appearing weak and the Trump administration constrained by looming midterm elections and domestic political pressures. “Neither side wants to negotiate,” said Alan Eyre, a former U.S. diplomat and Iran analyst, attributing the impasse to each party’s belief that time will erode the other's leverage—whether through control of the Strait of Hormuz or economic blockade efforts.

Iranian officials have denied internal divisions regarding the negotiations and declined to comment directly on recent reports. The evolving dynamics within Tehran’s leadership and the widening gap in negotiation positions continue to complicate prospects for an early resolution.