Iran is preparing to leverage its strategic geographic position by targeting two critical maritime chokepoints amid escalating conflict with the United States. Following a recent surge in hostilities, Tehran is reportedly developing plans to disrupt oil traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, aiming to maximize pressure on Washington and its regional allies.
The developments come as attacks and counterattacks have intensified. The United States conducted strikes on 90 targets overnight, resulting in the deaths of more than a dozen individuals. In response, Iran launched missiles and drone attacks against American bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, describing these actions as the "first phase of punitive response" for alleged violations by the United States.
Iran’s leadership appears to have recalibrated its strategy, emphasizing the leverage provided by its proximity to vital oil transit routes rather than its conventional military capabilities. The Strait of Hormuz, a crucial artery for global oil exports, is central to this approach. Iran plans to halt oil exports passing through the strait by targeting tankers and deploying naval mines. Additionally, Iran is prepared to strike oil production and refining facilities in neighboring countries, aiming to inflict damage severe enough to prevent rapid reconstruction. This approach seeks to exploit Iran’s economic hardships by using control over maritime traffic as a form of asymmetric leverage that the U.S. military cannot easily counter.
Reports indicate that maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has already been heavily disrupted. Observations early on July 9 showed only a single sanctioned crude carrier moving along the Iran-controlled shipping lane, accompanied by an Iranian container ship. In the adjacent lane closer to Omani waters—normally under U.S. influence—no vessels were observed transiting.
Beyond Hormuz, Iran intends to open a second front at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, situated between the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. This would involve bolstering allied Houthi forces in Yemen to control the passage, thereby threatening shipping routes that are vital for the flow of weapons and supplies linked to U.S. interests.
The broader military doctrine guiding these moves involves four key elements: halting oil exports through critical straits, expanding control over the Bab el-Mandeb, increasing the human and financial costs of U.S. involvement through asymmetric warfare, and implementing strategic ambiguity to widen Iran’s deterrent posture. This ambiguity includes placing more extreme “red lines” on the table, intended to unsettle U.S. strategic calculations and signal that further provocations could trigger even harsher reprisals.
Iran commands the region’s largest ballistic missile arsenal, including advanced systems such as the solid-fueled Kheibar Shekan missiles and hypersonic Fattah missiles, complemented by a fleet of Shahed drones. Its air defenses, weakened during the initial phases of the conflict, are being rebuilt around domestically produced Bavar-373 systems, Russian-supplied S-300 batteries, and coastal radar networks designed to monitor shipping and aerial activity.
The country’s war and peace decisions remain formally under the jurisdiction of the Supreme National Security Council and ultimately require the approval of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. However, analysts note a growing shift in power toward Iran’s military commanders amid ongoing hostilities. According to an Iranian official, orders from generals have effectively become binding, suggesting that military escalation could arise from decisions made in the field rather than solely from Tehran’s political leadership. Iranian authorities have asserted that the United States "understands only the language of force" and must be met accordingly.