Iraq is facing a significant security challenge following the withdrawal of US forces, which has left the government in Baghdad solely responsible for countering remaining threats from the Islamic State group (Daesh) and managing powerful armed factions aligned with Iran. The departure of American troops, who provided critical support in intelligence, surveillance, and defense, has heightened concerns about the country's ability to maintain stability and prevent the resurgence of militant activity.
Military experts have indicated that while Iraqi security forces and Kurdish Peshmerga fighters retain the capacity to prevent Daesh from regaining lost territory, notable gaps remain in areas such as intelligence gathering, aerial defense, and border control. The removal of US capabilities that helped protect the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Region from drone and missile attacks has raised questions about the region’s ongoing security and autonomy.
Beyond the threat from Daesh, analysts highlight a broader challenge for Baghdad: the difficulty of exerting control over various armed groups, some of which are embedded within official state institutions but maintain independent chains of command. This fragmentation complicates efforts to enforce national security and undermine the government's monopoly on the use of force.
The regional implications of Iraq’s security situation have become evident, as demonstrated by recent drone attacks launched from Iraqi territory targeting Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline. These incidents underscore the risks posed to neighboring countries by militant groups operating within or through Iraq’s borders.
Gulf states are closely monitoring whether Iraqi authorities can prevent their territory from being used as a platform for regional confrontations, maintain effective cooperation against terrorism, and secure detention centers holding thousands of suspected militants. As Baghdad navigates these complex security dynamics, its ability to consolidate control and foster regional stability remains a critical concern.
