Iraq remains mired in a political deadlock as its largest Shia parliamentary bloc, the Shia Coordination Framework, nominated Ali Al-Zaidi—a businessman with no prior political experience—to form a new government. The nomination, endorsed by newly elected Iraqi President Nizar Amedi, sets a 30-day constitutional deadline for Al-Zaidi to assemble a coalition, which expires on May 28.

Al-Zaidi’s selection marks a notable departure from traditional political figures and comes amid months of intense pressure from both the United States and Iran, two key external actors vying for influence in Iraq. The 40-year-old entrepreneur, who hails from the impoverished southern province of Dhi Qar, built a diverse business empire through his National Holding Company, with interests ranging from banking and supply chains to healthcare, media, agriculture, and renewable energy. However, his rapid ascent into politics has drawn scrutiny over potential conflicts of interest, particularly due to his ownership of Al-Janoob Islamic Bank, which has been subject to U.S. sanctions since 2024 on allegations of money laundering and ties to Iranian-backed militias.

Al-Zaidi now faces the formidable task of navigating Iraq’s entrenched sectarian and ethnic political system, which has long perpetuated paralysis and corruption since the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime in 2003. Various factions within the oligarchic establishment wield significant power, often through alliances with militias and foreign backers, complicating efforts to implement reforms or effectively govern.

The government-formation process has been stalled since last December, following the parliamentary elections and subsequent court rulings. Domestic political infighting, compounded by the broader geopolitical contest between Washington and Tehran, has made coalition-building even more precarious. The United States has exerted pressure for a government free of Iranian influence and has condemned militia attacks on American forces, while Iran’s representatives have engaged in diplomatic efforts to secure their interests, including an unannounced visit by Major General Esmail Qaani, commander of the IRGC’s Al-Quds Force.

Al-Zaidi’s nomination is seen by some as a pragmatic compromise by the Shia Coordination Framework, balancing domestic power rivalries with external expectations. While some Iraqi political leaders have welcomed his appointment, public skepticism remains high given the country’s history of political corruption and mismanagement. Demonstrations in 2019 underscored widespread frustration with an elite accused of kleptocracy—using state resources for personal enrichment at the expense of national development.

The nomination of Al-Zaidi was met with swift reactions from international figures. Former U.S. President Donald Trump quickly expressed support, framing the choice as a success influenced by American involvement and promising a productive future relationship. However, Iraqi analysts caution that Tehran’s influence within the Shia alliance and Al-Zaidi’s ties to established elites suggest his government may remain constrained by the complex web of domestic and external pressures.

As Iraq confronts economic challenges and escalating tensions related to broader regional conflicts, the ability of Ali Al-Zaidi to forge a stable governing coalition and deliver meaningful change remains uncertain. His success will depend largely on managing the delicate balance between competing sectarian interests and the geopolitical tug-of-war shaping Iraq’s political landscape.