Iraq’s Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has set a challenging goal to disarm the country’s Iran-backed militias by June 2027, marking an ambitious effort to bring armed groups under state control amid escalating regional tensions. Al-Zaidi outlined this timeline during an interview in Baghdad ahead of his participation in the United Nations General Assembly.
The plan involves an initial 90-day period during which the militias would cease all attacks and receive assurances that U.S. forces would not target them. Following this ceasefire, the militias would begin surrendering their weapons, with full disarmament expected by June 30, 2027. The militias, however, have sought an extended timeline, proposing disarmament no sooner than the end of next year. The government committee tasked with negotiating these terms plans to announce a formal agreement on September 30.
The issue of militia disarmament has long vexed Iraqi leaders. These groups, many formed or strengthened with Iranian support, have accrued significant military and political power since the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the subsequent emergence of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) during the 2014 fight against the Islamic State. Despite attempts to bring them under government authority, many militias maintain strong ties to Tehran and act autonomously.
Al-Zaidi, a political newcomer and former businessman who assumed office earlier this year, described disarmament as a necessity and a matter of national honor. He acknowledged that past leaders have avoided enforcing disarmament due to political pressures. His government faces intense pressure from the United States, Iraq’s key security and economic partner, to neutralize these militias, which have also become a critical tool for Iran’s regional agenda amid ongoing conflict between Tehran and Washington.
The militias have been implicated in numerous attacks on neighboring countries, energy infrastructure, and U.S. interests in Iraq. Recently, Saudi Arabia accused Iraqi militias of involvement in a drone strike that disrupted operations at the Kingdom’s East-West pipeline, a vital conduit for global oil supplies. Iraqi officials suspect the militias played a facilitating role, though Iraq denies involvement in the broader regional conflict.
Security analysts and regional diplomats caution that the disarmament timeline is highly ambitious and may be unfeasible without broader diplomatic progress. A senior Iraqi security official, speaking anonymously, noted that success depends on a peace agreement between the United States and Iran, which remains elusive. Experts highlight that as long as Iran views these militias as strategic assets, it is unlikely to support their dissolution.
Complicating matters further is Turkey’s military presence in northern Iraq, which militias cite as justification for retaining arms. Turkey maintains troops there to combat Kurdish separatist militants, prompting al-Zaidi to seek arrangements for the withdrawal of Turkish forces and integration of local Kurdish groups into the PMF.
Alongside security challenges, Iraq faces significant economic strain. As the world’s third-largest oil exporter, Iraq has seen export revenues drop by approximately 60 percent, largely due to disruptions linked to the conflict between the U.S. and Iran that affected shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Al-Zaidi is promoting infrastructure projects, including proposed pipelines that would bypass the Persian Gulf and extend to Europe, aiming to reduce Iraq’s vulnerability.
Despite calls for cooperation, Iran has blocked Iraqi oil tankers from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a move al-Zaidi attributes to Tehran’s strategy to inflate global oil prices amid ongoing tensions.
As Iraq confronts these intertwined security and economic challenges, al-Zaidi’s administration must navigate complex domestic and regional dynamics to achieve its goals. The success of its disarmament plan hinges on balancing relations with both the United States and Iran while managing the entrenched power of armed factions within Iraq.