Victoria’s upcoming state election on November 28 is showing signs of shifting voter dynamics, with recent polling indicating One Nation’s surge may be losing momentum. The developments follow public criticism of Pauline Hanson’s party by opposition leader Jess Wilson and new internal polling released by the Greens.

The Greens’ internal survey, conducted by the Online Research Unit between October 14 and 26, involved 1,488 eligible Victorian voters, with a margin of error of 3% and a 95% confidence level. While internal polls generally warrant cautious interpretation, the findings present a notable contrast to recent Newspoll data, particularly regarding One Nation’s support.

The Greens poll suggests a statewide primary vote of 14% for One Nation, significantly lower than Newspoll’s 20%. This six-percentage-point difference could indicate a considerable decline in backing for Hanson’s party if confirmed across the electorate. In comparison, both polls displayed close alignment in figures for the major parties and Greens: the Coalition’s primary vote recorded at 32% by the Greens’ poll versus 33% in Newspoll; Labor’s at 25% versus 24%; and the Greens at 15% versus 14%. The two-party-preferred results were similarly consistent, with the Greens poll giving the Coalition a 54-46 lead, nearly mirroring Newspoll’s 55-45 margin.

The Greens report similar support levels in upper house voting intention, reinforcing their optimism as the campaign progresses. The party’s new federal leader, David Shoebridge, who has recently seen an increase in membership under his leadership, is set to return to Melbourne to participate in one of the largest campaign events of the cycle. The event will mobilize about 200 volunteers to canvass every remaining household in three inner-city electorates: Richmond and Melbourne, which the Greens currently hold, and Prahran, which they aim to reclaim from the Liberals after losing it in the 2025 by-election.

According to Greens sources, the party is confident about retaining its three seats and winning Prahran and Northcote, the latter narrowly held by Labor with a 0.2% margin. They also view Pascoe Vale and Footscray as genuine contests. In the upper house, the Greens anticipate securing at least one seat in each region, with the potential for a second seat in the northern metropolitan area. By their estimate, One Nation could obtain a comparable number of seats.

Within Labor ranks, some disaffected sources suggest that the Greens’ rising support partly stems from progressive voters dissatisfied with what they view as Labor’s shift towards the center-right under Premier Ben Carroll. Contributors cite Carroll’s deteriorating relations with unions, his decision to postpone legislation for a guaranteed right to work from home, and subsequent failure to pass such laws as factors driving voters towards the Greens. Labor’s strained connections with certain union electorates are also mentioned.

Carroll has sought to appeal to progressive voters, unveiling a ministerial taskforce aimed at increasing affordable and sustainable housing options. He has also publicly accused One Nation of fear mongering and of making unrealistic promises ahead of the election.

With just weeks remaining before Victorian voters head to the polls, the evolving political landscape suggests a competitive contest as parties vie for seats across the state.