Is the U.S. Stock Market Rally Just Getting Started?

By the Editorial Team · Tuesday, September 1, 2026

Economist Edward Yardeni predicts the U.S. stock market will continue its strong growth through the early 2030s, potentially pushing the S&P 500 to 10,000 by the decade’s end, driven by technological advances like AI. However, he cautions that geopolitical tensions, inflation, and rising bond yields pose risks, urging investors to remain vigilant despite the optimistic outlook.

After more than three years of significant gains in the U.S. stock market, some experts are debating whether the rally has further room to run or if caution is warranted. Edward Yardeni, an independent strategist and economist with a Ph.D. from Yale, remains notably optimistic about the market’s prospects, predicting continued growth potentially extending well into the next decade.

Yardeni coined the phrase “the Roaring 2020s” early in the decade, forecasting that technological advances—particularly in artificial intelligence—would drive productivity and corporate profits, thereby sustaining a strong bull market. Despite the uncertainties and challenges faced during the COVID-19 pandemic, Yardeni correctly anticipated the market bottom in March 2020 and pronounced the start of a sustained upward trend by August of that year.

Through early 2024, the S&P 500 has gained approximately 138 percent since the end of 2019. Yardeni expects this momentum to persist, projecting an 80 percent probability that strong market performance will continue through at least the early 2030s. He predicts the S&P 500 could reach a level of 10,000 by the end of the decade, marking a roughly 210 percent increase—a growth rate consistent with the market’s historical average annual return since World War II.

While recognizing the optimism, Yardeni also highlights potential risks. He points to geopolitical tensions involving conflicts in Iran and Ukraine, trade disputes, and U.S.-China rivalry as possible destabilizing factors. Additionally, rising inflation and increasing bond yields could pose challenges. Yardeni notes that the so-called “bond vigilantes”—investors who react strongly against unsustainable fiscal and monetary policies—have returned amid increasing deficits and substantial bond issuance related to both government spending and corporate investment in AI infrastructure.

Despite these concerns, Yardeni does not currently foresee a recession and expects that policymakers will manage to avoid severe economic disruptions. He emphasizes that the current market rally is supported by real earnings growth rather than speculative excess, although he cautions that no bull market is immune to correction.

Yardeni also reflects on historical parallels, recalling the original Roaring Twenties, which ended abruptly with a market crash and the Great Depression. He warns against complacency, underscoring that periods of economic expansion may lead investors and policymakers to underestimate risks and engage in imprudent behavior. This includes the possibility that deregulation policies could encourage excessive risk-taking and potential corporate misconduct reminiscent of past scandals.

Not all experts share Yardeni’s level of confidence. While some investors and analysts remain bullish, others approach the market with increased caution, maintaining balanced portfolios with cash and high-quality bonds to guard against potential downturns.

For long-term investors, Yardeni’s forecast suggests a continued positive outlook for the economy, corporate profits, and stock market returns, provided geopolitical and economic headwinds remain manageable. Nonetheless, market watchers emphasize the inherent uncertainties of the current environment and recommend vigilance amid the evolving landscape.

This article was reported by synthesizing coverage from multiple independent news outlets to present a balanced, unbiased account. Read about our editorial standards. Spotted an error? Let us know.