Israel is heading into national elections on October 27 amid a shifting political landscape that favors right-wing and far-right parties, raising concerns about the country’s democratic future and its approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Recent polls suggest that the far-right Jewish Strength party, led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, may secure more Knesset seats than the Democrats, the successor to the historically dominant Labor party.
Ben-Gvir, a controversial figure with a history of extremist views, has drawn attention for mixing provocative rhetoric, including calls for ethnic cleansing, with his political campaigning. A poll published last week indicated his party could win nine seats, surpassing the Democrats’ projected eight seats. The Democrats are led by Yair Golan, a former IDF general who advocates for a negotiated resolution but has largely avoided explicitly endorsing a two-state solution in this election cycle.
The rise of far-right parties is part of a broader shift among Israeli voters, particularly younger Jewish citizens. A recent survey by Channel 12 found that three-quarters of first-time Jewish voters identify as right or center-right. This generation matured after the collapse of the Oslo peace process and the traumatic Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, which led to over 1,200 deaths and a prolonged hostage crisis. Analysts say this environment of entrenched conflict and fear has contributed to a political culture that leans heavily toward nationalist and populist positions.
Demographically, the ultra-Orthodox and nationalist religious communities—both consistently right wing—make up about a quarter of the Jewish electorate, but political socialization amid ongoing conflict also plays a significant role in shaping younger voters’ attitudes. Dahlia Scheindlin, a political analyst, noted that young Israelis “have been living in a political environment where not only is the government right-wing but the general terms of debate are really populist and ultra-nationalist.”
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s current coalition, which includes ultra-Orthodox and far-right factions, is widely expected to fall short of the 61-seat majority needed to govern. The opposition could potentially form a government through cooperation with Arab parties representing Palestinian citizens of Israel. However, many Jewish-led parties have ruled out alliances with these groups, although such positions have shifted in past election cycles.
On security and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, there is little deviation among Jewish parties from Netanyahu’s hardline stance favoring military dominance and territorial annexation. Former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, currently leading the Yashar party and seen as Netanyahu’s leading contender, supports settlement expansion and the use of disproportionate military force. Other prominent figures like former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett advocate for annexation of much of the West Bank, while Avigdor Lieberman proposes dismantling the Palestinian Authority in favor of an Israeli-Jordanian confederation, despite lacking apparent consultation with Jordan.
The Democrats stand out as the sole Jewish-led party opposing settlement expansion, yet their more centrist platform struggles to gain traction amid a political climate increasingly dominated by right-wing nationalism. The party and its activists have faced physical and verbal attacks during their campaigns, underscoring heightened social tensions. Erez Uzan, vice-chair of the Young Democrats, highlighted the climate of fear and racial hostility underpinning much of the political discourse.
Far-right leaders, including Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich—who has publicly called for harsh military actions against Gaza—have leveraged social media to amplify their messages, attracting significant support among young voters. Smotrich’s alliance with Moshe Feiglin, known for advocating the expulsion of Palestinians and the construction of a Jewish temple on the Temple Mount, exemplifies the increasing influence of religious fundamentalism in Israeli politics.
Many on Israel’s center and left view the upcoming election as a critical juncture. David Harel, president of the Israel Academy of Sciences and Humanities, warned that continued dominance by far-right and fundamentalist forces could lead Israel toward corruption, isolation, and the entrenchment of a “violent, cruel occupation.” Calling the vote existential, he urged citizens to participate as a means of safeguarding the country’s democratic and societal future.