A memorandum of understanding signed between U.S. and Iranian representatives in Switzerland on June 23 appears to mark an end to the latest phase of the conflict between Israel and Iran, which intensified following Hamas attacks on Israeli communities in October 2023. The agreement comes after a series of military and diplomatic developments spanning from February to June 2026, during which Israel and the United States sought to significantly weaken the Iranian regime’s strategic capabilities.
The final stage of hostilities was characterized by Israeli and American efforts aimed at dismantling Iran’s nuclear program and missile infrastructure, but these objectives were not fully realized. Despite substantial military operations, including targeted strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities and missile production sites, Tehran has emerged from the conflict with its regime intact and, according to some analysts, strategically reinforced.
Israeli leadership, under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, initiated the latest military campaign based on an assessment that the Iranian regime was vulnerable, citing widespread domestic protests in Iran and previous damage inflicted on key nuclear sites. The plan, reportedly involving coordinated efforts with Kurdish militias from Iraqi Kurdistan, was ambitious but ultimately did not prompt the expected internal uprising. The militias involved were relatively small and lightly armed, and their ability to challenge the presence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Iran’s border province was limited.
The United States under President Donald Trump supported Israel’s actions initially but later shifted approach, leading to the negotiation of the recent deal. Officials from the U.S. government acknowledge that while some provisions of the memorandum favor Iran, Tehran has offered private assurances of good faith negotiations. However, public statements from Iranian authorities since the conflict resumed suggest a continued unwillingness to compromise on core issues.
A significant achievement of the accord is the temporary reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for free maritime transit, a critical passage through which about 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passes. Nonetheless, this provision lasts only 60 days, after which Iran may begin charging fees for passage, as indicated by Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iran’s chief negotiator. This potential introduction of tolls has raised concerns over the formalization of what some view as Iran’s extortion of a vital global shipping route.
The deal lifts all sanctions on Iran’s oil sector immediately, providing the regime with substantial financial relief before comprehensive nuclear negotiations have taken place. Additionally, the memorandum stipulates the release of frozen Iranian funds and assets “upon implementation,” a move that has sparked criticism from U.S. experts who argue the United States is relinquishing its strongest economic leverage prematurely. The agreement also includes a proposal for up to $300 billion in reconstruction and economic development funds for Iran, although it remains unclear whether American or Gulf states' financial contributions will materialize.
Negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program are slated to begin, with a 60-day timeline that some observers consider unrealistically short. The Iranian side’s only current concession is to discuss the fate of approximately 440 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent, leaving the broader scope of Iran’s nuclear ambitions unresolved. Critics note that the deal differs markedly from the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, particularly regarding sanctions relief timing and the scope of uranium enrichment permitted.
The memorandum also links the cessation of hostilities to peace on other conflict fronts, particularly between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, a condition that Israel has rejected. Netanyahu has maintained a firm stance against Iranian demands for Israeli troop withdrawals from southern Lebanon, underscoring ongoing tensions. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has urged Israel to exercise restraint in its responses to Hezbollah provocations, favoring de-escalation efforts despite frequent rocket attacks from the Lebanese border.
The agreement has exposed fissures between Israel and the United States. Israeli officials, expecting sustained U.S. support aligned closely with their regional strategy, found themselves sidelined as the Trump administration balanced competing influences from Turkey and Qatar, which hold more conciliatory views toward Iran. Economic pressures such as rising global oil prices and inflation also contributed to an American reluctance to maintain prolonged military engagement.
Netanyahu defended the recent military campaign as having inflicted significant damage on Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, as well as its economy, estimating losses in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Nonetheless, he acknowledged that preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons remains an ongoing challenge that may require Israel to act independently.
The outcome highlights a series of strategic miscalculations by both Israel and the United States. An overestimation of Iran’s instability and a reliance on a predominantly aerial campaign failed to achieve decisive regime change. Furthermore, Trump’s dismissal of U.S. military advisories concerning the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz proved a critical error, as the strait’s potential closure posed a severe threat to global energy supplies.
As the new status quo settles, Israel faces the prospect of continued regional hostility from Iran-aligned groups without full backing from its principal ally. The memorandum’s success hinges on maintaining peace along multiple fronts, a challenging prospect given the entrenched conflicts and divergent interests in the region.