Israel’s recent parliamentary elections have resulted in a fragmented political landscape that may allow Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to remain in power despite losing the popular vote. Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition secured 53 out of 120 seats in the Knesset, trailing the combined opposition bloc led by retired military chief Gadi Eisenkot, which won 67 seats. However, 19 of the opposition seats belong to Arab-led parties, whose participation in government remains controversial and politically sensitive.
The two main Arab parties, the Joint List and Ra’am (United Arab List), together hold a historic 19 seats, reflecting a surge in voter turnout among Arab Israelis, who make up about 20 percent of the population. This increased participation was driven by concerns over issues such as crime, underinvestment in Arab communities, and the perceived hardening of Netanyahu’s right-wing government policies.
Despite the opposition’s numerical advantage, the complex political dynamics surrounding Arab parties in Israel could benefit Netanyahu. Israeli politics remains deeply divided, with widespread skepticism among many Jewish Israelis regarding cooperation with Arab parties in governing coalitions. Conversely, Arab parties have traditionally avoided legitimizing the Israeli state by joining its governments, with the exception of Ra’am’s brief role in the coalition formed by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid in 2021.
Netanyahu and his allies have challenged the legitimacy of Arab-led parties, accusing them of electoral fraud and foreign interference, claims viewed by critics as attempts to delegitimize their political influence. Meanwhile, Eisenkot and his bloc have ruled out partnering with Netanyahu and set strict conditions for any alliance with the Arab parties, including recognition of Israel as a Jewish and democratic state, support for conscription of Palestinian Israeli citizens, and condemnation of Hamas as a terrorist group.
Ra’am, led by Mansour Abbas, appears open to joining a coalition under those terms, but Eisenkot faces internal opposition from key figures such as Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the Yisrael Beiteinu party, who has explicitly rejected working with Arab political factions. The Joint List, headed by Yousef Jabareen, maintains that it will not join a governing coalition while the occupation of Palestinians in the West Bank continues, but has expressed willingness to provide external support to the opposition to prevent Netanyahu’s return to power.
This stalemate leaves Israeli President Isaac Herzog with the complex task of deciding who to invite first to form a government. Observers predict Netanyahu will receive the initial mandate given that Likud remains the largest single party with 27 seats. However, the path to a stable government is uncertain and could result in protracted coalition negotiations or possibly new elections.
The outcome of this political impasse carries broader implications for the inclusion of Arab Israelis in the country’s governance and societal integration. Analysts note that how mainstream Jewish parties engage with Arab parties, either through coalition participation or parliamentary cooperation, will send significant signals about political representation and coexistence within Israel’s democratic framework.
As political leaders navigate this unprecedented post-election landscape, analysts caution against underestimating Netanyahu’s capacity for a political comeback, while acknowledging the unpredictability that continues to characterize Israeli politics.