As Israel prepares for its parliamentary elections on October 28, 2026, the political landscape shows little sign of significant change despite the dramatic events of the past three years. The election campaign features many of the same key figures, familiar policy debates, and a similar division of votes along the right, center, and left spectrum as in previous cycles.
Since the deadly attack on October 7, 2023, which exposed serious security vulnerabilities, Israel has responded with intensified military operations, including actions described by some as genocidal, expanded control over the West Bank, ongoing conflict with Iran, incursions into Lebanon and Syria, and exchanges of fire with Houthi forces in Yemen. Nevertheless, these developments have not shifted the political balance substantially.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party is projected to secure the largest share of seats, around 24, down from 32 in 2022, while right-wing allies such as Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu and Naftali Bennett’s faction are expected to maintain a combined dominance, with right-wing parties collectively holding more than 70 out of the 120 seats in the Knesset.
The political center has significantly diminished, with parties like the Democrats under Yair Golan possibly gaining about nine seats, while the historic Israeli Labor Party remains marginalized. Current polling indicates that roughly 60 percent of Jewish Israelis identify as right-wing, with left-wing and centrist voters each constituting approximately 20 percent. These longstanding divisions have remained largely intact since the early 2000s, with major turning points like the Second Intifada and the 2005 Gaza disengagement marking a rightward shift.
Among new contenders, the rise of Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party highlights an ongoing pattern: former military chiefs, like Eisenkot, Gabi Ashkenazi, and Benny Gantz, are often positioned as security-savvy alternatives to Netanyahu. Yet, these candidates have struggled to match Netanyahu’s political durability, and their policy stances show limited departure from prevailing government approaches.
On Palestinian issues, there is broad consensus across most main parties against negotiating a two-state solution or establishing a Palestinian state. None support reopening talks with the Palestinian leadership. Jerusalem is universally treated as Israel’s undivided capital, and the Jordan Valley remains a non-negotiable area under permanent Israeli control. Withdrawals from Gaza, whether full or partial, are not on the agenda.
Several parties supported efforts to ban Palestinian political groups from participating in the elections; however, these bans were overturned by Israel’s Supreme Court. Public opinion largely reflects this stance, with about 70 percent of Jewish Israelis opposing the inclusion of Palestinian parties in future coalition governments.
Within this context, Palestinian parties continue to represent a pro-peace bloc advocating for negotiations and two-state solutions. They are expected to secure between 12 and 15 seats, a figure that could prevent any single bloc from achieving a governing majority of 61 seats in the Knesset.
As election results are tallied, Israelis may face uncertainty over who will ultimately form the next government. Despite recent high-profile conflicts and crises, the composition of political actors and their core policies are expected to remain strikingly consistent. Observers suggest that this continuity signals a broader unwillingness among Jewish Israeli voters to deviate from a trajectory of continued escalation and conflict, with little indication of a genuine policy overhaul in the near term.