Israel’s recent election has produced a result unlikely to bring significant changes to the country’s security policies or its stance on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, analysts say. The two main contenders, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, present different styles and personalities but share broadly similar positions on key issues such as opposition to a Palestinian state.
If Netanyahu fails to form a government, he could remain in office as a caretaker prime minister for an extended period, raising concerns among experts about potential increases in settler violence in the West Bank and renewed Israeli pressure on the U.S. administration to resume military actions against Iran. Conversely, an Eisenkot-led government is expected to maintain Israel’s current foreign policy trajectory, with minor shifts in tone but no fundamental moves toward a two-state solution or de-escalation of ongoing conflicts with Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iran.
Israel’s international standing has suffered in recent years, particularly following the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent extensive Israeli military campaigns in southern Lebanon and Gaza. These operations, combined with intensified sectarian violence in the West Bank, have diminished global sympathy and support. Additionally, Israel’s encouragement of U.S. efforts to confront Iran has been unpopular worldwide, contributing to higher energy prices and inflation.
Experts warn that Israel faces heightened diplomatic challenges, including a rise in anti-Israel and antisemitic sentiment in Western countries and the possibility of economic damage linked to European sanctions on West Bank products and businesses. In the United States, support for Israel appears to be waning among Democrats, particularly as they position themselves to regain control of the House of Representatives in the upcoming midterm elections.
Some European governments, including Britain and France, have postponed implementing sanctions in hopes an Eisenkot administration would take stronger action to curb settler violence, halt West Bank territorial claims, and engage constructively with efforts to promote peace with the Palestinians. However, longstanding animosity between many European leaders and Netanyahu complicates prospects for Europe’s active involvement in advancing regional peace. Eisenkot’s approach is seen as more open to cooperation, potentially improving Israel’s relationship with Europe.
Following the vote, the European Union recognized Israel’s “vibrant democracy” and expressed willingness to engage with the new government based on shared democratic values, though uncertainty persists. Political deadlock remains a possibility, which could lead to new elections and further instability.
During any interim period, Netanyahu is unlikely to moderate policies on Gaza or restrain settler activities, partly due to the influence of far-right coalition partners. Observers note that Netanyahu may use this phase to reinforce his image as a security hawk, potentially escalating tensions beyond Israel’s borders. This includes the risk of renewed conflict with Iran, which some analysts say is becoming increasingly inevitable, though unlikely to resolve underlying disputes.
The election results reflect a broad rejection of Netanyahu’s coalition, with a majority of Israelis voting for opposition parties. Nonetheless, Eisenkot would likely require support from Arab parties to form a government, a prospect complicated by opposition from some members of his potential coalition and Netanyahu’s strategy of questioning Arab party loyalty. This dynamic risks alienating Israel’s Arab citizens—about 21 percent of the population—and further tarnishing the country’s democratic reputation, especially amid record-high Arab voter turnout.
Observers caution that dismissing Arab participation or calling for new elections due to political disagreements would damage perceptions of Israeli democracy both domestically and internationally. As Israel navigates the post-election landscape, political fragmentation and regional tensions are expected to persist in the near term.