The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have made substantial progress in weakening Hamas’s operational capabilities within the Gaza Strip over the past year, securing control over an estimated 65% to 70% of the territory. Under the leadership of Southern Command chief Maj.-Gen. Yaniv Asor, who is a candidate for deputy IDF chief of staff, Israel has implemented a strategy centered on precise airstrikes targeting individuals directly involved in the October 7 attacks and those engaged in rebuilding Hamas’s military infrastructure. This approach relies heavily on intelligence gathered by the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) and the IDF Intelligence Directorate, combined with advanced aerial firepower.
Despite these efforts, recent weeks have seen a notable shift in Israel’s operational posture within Gaza. This change has been influenced by pressure from Hamas leader Khalil al-Hayya and regional actors, including Qatar, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates, who have appealed to the United States to moderate Israeli military actions. Responding to this, the Israeli government approved the entry of roughly 200 members of a multinational force into Gaza prior to the disarmament of Hamas or a formal transfer of authority to a technocratic Palestinian government.
This decision, coupled with criticism from within Israel’s defense establishment, highlights concerns over the government’s pragmatic approach to the US administration’s peace initiatives. Critics argue that the Israeli government has underestimated Hamas’s capacity to regroup and reassert control, particularly over areas designated as "terror-free" zones, such as Rafah. There is also censure directed at the Trump administration, UN envoy Nikolay Mladenov, and the technocratic Palestinian leadership for advancing efforts to rehabilitate southern Gaza without establishing robust security frameworks to prevent Hamas’s resurgence.
The involvement of regional powers hostile to Israel—Qatar and Turkey among them—has been facilitated by current US and Israeli policies, allowing these actors to expand their influence inside Gaza and over Israeli affairs. Additionally, doubts have emerged over the US-driven plans to rapidly construct new infrastructure in Rafah, with experts questioning the quality and speed of the work, which they say is incompatible with creating a stable municipal environment for around 50,000 Palestinians unaffiliated with militant activities.
Concerns about Israeli restraint have deepened following the arrest of a Nukhba unit operative—a Hamas special forces member implicated in the October 7 attacks—who was detained near the Kerem Shalom Crossing. The individual had been authorized to work as a driver transporting humanitarian aid, raising alarms about security lapses.
Taken together, these developments suggest that the current policy in Gaza may carry significant risks. Analysts warn that the combination of reduced Israeli military actions, international diplomatic pressures, and the absence of a strong governance framework could enable Hamas to reestablish its dominance in the Strip, potentially leading to further instability and threats to Israel’s security.