Nearly a decade ago, Israeli politician Bezalel Smotrich introduced a comprehensive plan, termed the Decisive Victory Plan, which advocates for a single-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The plan asserts that only one national identity should prevail west of the Jordan River—that of the Jewish people—and foresees a future where Palestinian national aspirations are effectively eliminated through settlement expansion and annexation of the West Bank.
Originally published in 2017, the plan was widely criticized at the time but has since gained significant influence within Israeli political circles and among segments of the electorate. Analysts warn that if the current right-wing government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is re-elected in the upcoming election, Smotrich’s vision could be carried out in full.
The plan calls for the declaration of “full Israeli sovereignty” over the occupied Palestinian territories, accompanied by a rapid expansion of settlements to create irreversible facts on the ground. It categorizes the approximately 3.3 million Palestinians living in the West Bank into three groups: those willing to live under Israeli rule without national voting rights, those who would be encouraged to emigrate with financial aid, and those engaged in armed resistance who would be met with lethal force. The plan also demands the confiscation of all weapons from Palestinians.
Since February 2023, Smotrich has overseen significant parts of the West Bank administration, implementing elements of his plan, including withholding between $5 billion and $6 billion in Palestinian tax revenues, severely limiting the Palestinian Authority’s ability to govern. Settlement activity has escalated sharply following the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023, with extremist settler violence against Palestinian communities increasing substantially. United Nations data indicates a nearly 14-fold rise in such attacks between 2020 and 2026.
In response to recent violence, Netanyahu deployed hundreds of troops to Hebron after two Israeli soldiers were killed. Smotrich ordered demolitions to serve as punitive measures and deterrence against further attacks. Meanwhile, Netanyahu has encouraged Israeli companies to explore blockchain technologies as a means to circumvent international sanctions, signaling preparations for possible diplomatic isolation.
Some analysts view the current government’s policies as part of a broader “messianic drift” within Israeli politics, intensified by the aftermath of the October 7 attacks, the growth of the religious right, and the absence of a strong political counter-narrative. They emphasize that this shift is not exclusive to Netanyahu’s administration but reflects a longer-term trend toward illiberal and nationalist policies.
Opposition leaders largely avoid supporting a return to a two-state framework. For instance, Gadi Eisenkot, a potential opposition figure, recently described the two-state solution as unrealistic in the post-October 7 context. Among the opposition parties, only the Democrats maintain support for a two-state resolution, while others oppose Palestinian statehood outright.
Some experts note that Israel’s national identity and security doctrine are evolving, prioritizing Jewish identity over democratic norms, increasing self-reliance, and normalizing military readiness. This shift also involves a skepticism toward traditional Arab states in the region, viewing them as fragile and lacking genuine nationhood.
Despite the significance of these strategic changes, public discourse ahead of the election has focused primarily on leadership personalities, economic concerns, and domestic issues such as conscription exemptions for ultra-Orthodox communities, rather than on the underlying national and security trajectory.
The upcoming election is widely seen as pivotal in shaping Israel’s internal transformation, but it is unlikely to reverse the prevailing nationalist trend. Analysts suggest that while an opposition victory may ease pressures on Palestinians temporarily, it would not mark a substantial policy shift. Conversely, a win by Netanyahu’s far-right coalition could accelerate the implementation of Smotrich’s plan, further entrenching Israeli sovereignty over the West Bank and exacerbating the humanitarian and political challenges for Palestinians.