Japan not confident that relations with U.S. will improve after Trump, survey finds

By the Editorial Team · Wednesday, September 9, 2026

A survey by the University of Sydney shows that while Japan still values its security alliance with the U.S., only 26% of Japanese respondents are optimistic about improved relations if President Trump serves a second term, reflecting concerns over his transactional approach and trade policies. This declining confidence includes a drop from 77% to 60% in belief that the U.S. would defend Japan against a Chinese attack, highlighting growing uncertainty about U.S. commitment amid rising regional tensions.

A recent study reveals that while Japan continues to regard the United States as an essential security partner, confidence in improved relations after President Donald Trump’s potential second term remains low. The survey, conducted by the University of Sydney’s United States Studies Center, found that only 26% of Japanese respondents believe the U.S. will become a better ally post-Trump, compared with 45% of Australians and 46% of Americans expressing such optimism.

The poll surveyed over 1,000 individuals from the Quad security group nations—Japan, the U.S., Australia, and India—to assess public perception of bilateral and regional alliances. According to the study, Japanese respondents demonstrated notably lower confidence in the future strength of the U.S.-Japan alliance after Trump’s tenure, citing concerns about the U.S. president’s transactional approach to alliances and his frequent use of tariffs or the threat thereof, which has strained diplomatic ties.

More than half of the Japanese surveyed (53%) viewed the prospect of a second Trump term negatively for Japan, whereas only 8% held a positive view. Despite apprehensions about U.S. leadership, 36% of Japanese participants still consider the U.S. alliance more necessary than ever. This sense of necessity is echoed more strongly in India and Australia, with 44% and 49% respectively affirming the alliance’s critical importance.

However, the survey also points to a decline in Japanese confidence regarding the U.S. defense commitment. In 2023, 77% of Japanese respondents felt certain that the United States would come to Japan’s defense if it were attacked by China. This figure dropped to 60% in the latest survey, indicating growing uncertainty. The deterioration of Japan-China relations has been evident since November, following comments by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggesting Japan could militarily intervene if China attacked Taiwan. Interestingly, however, the survey noted a slight decrease in Japanese expectations of an armed conflict with China occurring within the next decade.

Regarding perceptions of China, 66% of Japanese respondents identify it as a security threat, while 28% emphasize the economic partnership. Similar patterns emerged among Americans (55% threat, 43% economic partner) and Indians (59% threat, 43% economic partner). Australians diverged somewhat, with 64% viewing China primarily as an economic partner and 47% seeing it as a potential danger.

When asked about their own governments’ handling of China, Americans were the most critical, with 20% labeling the approach as “too aggressive.” Comparatively, only 4% of Australians and 7% of Japanese respondents expressed similar views regarding their respective governments' China policies.

The findings highlight complex and evolving perceptions within the Quad countries about the U.S. alliance and the regional security landscape, underscoring ongoing uncertainties about leadership and strategic stability in the Indo-Pacific.

This article was reported by synthesizing coverage from multiple independent news outlets to present a balanced, unbiased account. Read about our editorial standards. Spotted an error? Let us know.