In 2026, Japan is grappling with a significant surplus of rice, a sharp reversal from the shortages and soaring prices that troubled the market just a year prior. The shift has brought relief to consumers but poses serious challenges for rice farmers, many of whom are facing financial losses and an uncertain future.

Hiroshi Asano, a 59-year-old rice farmer in Chiba prefecture near Tokyo, is among those affected. Managing 38 hectares of rice fields, Asano expects to incur losses this year amid declining prices, increased input costs, and recent extreme weather events that have further complicated cultivation. He expressed concern that smaller-scale farmers, who lack the resources to adapt, may be forced to abandon their operations.

Japan’s rice farming sector has been shrinking steadily, with the number of farmers dropping from 2.4 million in 2000 to under one million this year, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. The majority of active farmers—approximately 70%—are over the age of 65, and many heirs are reluctant to take over family farms, opting instead for other careers.

The rice industry in Japan operates under a tightly controlled system of production quotas and import restrictions designed to protect local producers and maintain food security. However, an exceptionally hot summer in 2023 led to poor yields, while demand surged due to a rebound in dining out after the COVID-19 pandemic and consumer stockpiling amid government warnings about potential earthquakes. This combination sparked fears of shortages, prompting the government to release emergency stockpiles for the first time.

In 2025, the government sold off 590 million kilograms of reserve rice—roughly a month’s supply—to ease price pressures. Yet the release was seen by some, including Asano, as excessive, contributing to the current glut. Furthermore, the harvest that year exceeded demand more than anticipated, partly because of shifting eating habits, rising prices, and demographic changes.

Consequently, retail rice prices have fallen sharply from a peak of over 4,400 yen per 5 kilograms in January to around 2,934 yen by September 20. In response to falling prices, the agriculture ministry plans to repurchase about 210 million kilograms of rice to rebuild reserves. However, experts foresee continued downward pressure on prices into 2027 amid persistent oversupply.

Asano reports that payments from the Japan Agricultural Cooperatives, which act as intermediaries for many farmers, have halved from 30,000 yen to below 15,000 yen per 60 kilograms of unprocessed rice. He has sought to diversify by producing organic rice and handling processing and packaging himself to reach local retailers and individual buyers. Nevertheless, smaller farmers typically cannot invest in such value-added activities and must accept the prices offered by cooperatives.

Amid falling rice prices benefiting consumers—including reductions in popular convenience store rice ball prices—the government is taking steps to stabilize the market. It has upgraded rice production forecasting models to better incorporate real-time factors such as population trends and tourism, and new food laws require processors and retailers to report inventory and sales data for improved market transparency.

Agricultural policy experts, including Kunio Nishikawa of Nihon University, caution that prices are unlikely to recover soon due to excess supply and recommend subsidies to support farmers, though such measures may face political hurdles. Asano himself advocates for a government-mandated price floor around 20,000 yen per 60 kilograms to help sustain the farming sector.

While Asano remains committed to farming, integrating modern technologies like drones and involving family members, he recognizes the sector's fragility. “If it were just me, I might have given up already,” he said, underscoring the broader challenges confronting Japan’s rice producers amid shifting market dynamics.