Japan is experiencing an unexpected shift in its rice market, moving from shortages last year to a significant oversupply in 2026, a development that benefits consumers but poses challenges for farmers. The government’s release of emergency stockpiles last year to ease soaring prices and prevent a crisis has contributed to the current glut, which has led to a steep drop in rice prices.
Hiroshi Asano, a 59-year-old rice farmer from Chiba who manages 38 hectares of fields near Tokyo, exemplifies the difficulties faced by producers amid this market reversal. After taking over farmland from family and neighbors, Asano now expects to incur losses this year due to lower prices and increased production costs. He expresses concern for smaller-scale farmers who may be unable to sustain their operations under such economic pressure. “I’ve been hearing about quite a few people who plan to give up this year,” Asano said.
The Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries reports a dramatic decline in the number of farmers, from 2.4 million in 2000 to fewer than a million in 2026. The aging farming population—with about 70% over age 65—combined with younger generations opting for non-agricultural careers, has contributed to this decline. Additionally, extreme weather events, such as record rainfall recently, have further complicated cultivation efforts.
Japan’s rice market operates under strict production guidelines and import restrictions designed to maintain stable prices and food security, which often leads the domestic market to behave differently from global trends. Last year’s market strain began with a hot summer that caused the lowest rice yield in over a decade, exacerbated by increased demand as pandemic restrictions eased and consumers stockpiled rice amid earthquake warnings.
To combat shortages, the government released about 590,000 metric tons from reserves—roughly a month’s supply—drawing criticism from some producers like Asano, who believe the move was excessive. “Essentially Koizumi did not need to release that much stockpiled rice last year,” he said, referring to then-Agriculture Minister Shinjiro Koizumi. This contributed to an oversupply when combined with last year’s harvest, which was larger than anticipated due to flawed demand forecasts.
Rice prices have since fallen sharply. A 5-kilogram bag sold for about ¥2,934 ($18.70) as of late September, the lowest price in over two years, down from more than ¥4,400 in January. In response, the agriculture ministry plans to repurchase approximately 210,000 tons of rice to replenish its stocks, but analysts predict prices will continue to decline. Kimio Inagaki, a farm policy expert at Mitsubishi Research Institute, noted that even with government intervention, market pressures are likely to keep prices low.
Asano reports the cooperative that intermediates rice sales is paying less than half last year’s price for unprocessed rice—under ¥15,000 per 60 kilograms compared to ¥30,000 previously. To offset this, he has diversified by producing organic rice and managing processing and packaging himself, enabling sales to local shops and direct customers. However, smaller farmers usually cannot afford such value-added efforts and remain dependent on cooperatives.
Consumers are benefiting from lower prices at supermarkets and convenience stores, where rice ball prices have also dropped. Meanwhile, the government has updated its forecasting models to better reflect factors such as demographic trends and tourism, and new regulations require food businesses to report inventory data to improve market transparency.
Experts like Kunio Nishikawa, an agricultural policy professor at Nihon University, acknowledge that prices may continue to fall into next year, suggesting that subsidies and other support measures might be necessary to maintain the farming sector, although such measures could face political hurdles.
Asano advocates for a government-mandated price floor near ¥20,000 per 60 kilograms, a level he believes is needed for farmers to sustain livelihoods. He plans to continue farming, having incorporated technological tools like drones and engaged family members in the business. “Now the farm has become this big, I think: If I quit, what are all these other people going to do?” he said. “But if it were just me, I might have given up already.”