Since Donald Trump took office last year, the US oil and gas sector has experienced a notable disconnect between rising production and corporate profits on one hand and declining employment on the other. Despite Trump's campaign promises to revitalize fossil fuel industries and generate hundreds of thousands of energy jobs through deregulation and increased drilling, the sector has shed nearly 13,000 jobs during his administration.
Data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that employment in oil and gas extraction fell to 114,500 in July, the lowest level since the height of the COVID-19 pandemic when the industry faced a sharp downturn. Jobs in oilfield services—a category that includes mining and logging—also declined by approximately 7,500 since January last year, reaching 264,600.
This decline in employment has occurred alongside a roughly 4 percent increase in crude oil production to 13.8 million barrels per day since Trump's inauguration. Natural gas output is also forecast to hit record highs, averaging 122.5 billion cubic feet per day this year. The surge in production, partly driven by elevated petrol and diesel prices linked to the conflict involving Iran, has generated significant profits for major industry players. ExxonMobil and Chevron recorded a combined $26.5 billion profit in the second quarter, attracting political attention and scrutiny.
However, the expected parallel growth in job creation has not materialized. Several major companies, including ConocoPhillips, Chevron, and BP, have announced workforce reductions of up to 25 percent, 20 percent, and 5 percent respectively. These cuts, initiated amid concerns about a potential global oil surplus earlier last year, remain in effect. Chevron and ConocoPhillips are also navigating large acquisitions from Hess and Marathon Oil, while BP is undergoing a comprehensive restructuring under new CEO Meg O’Neill.
The trend of minimizing workforce size aligns with a longer-term industry focus on cost-cutting and prioritizing shareholder returns since the shale market downturn in 2014-2016. Advances in drilling technology, automation, and artificial intelligence have enabled companies to maintain or increase production with fewer workers. Additionally, some engineering and technical roles have been outsourced to technology centers abroad, notably in India.
Industry analysts highlight substantial efficiency gains over the past 15 years. Kevin Book of ClearView Energy Partners noted that it now takes fewer than half the number of employees to produce the same volume of oil and gas as during the early shale boom. Correspondingly, ExxonMobil’s and Chevron’s global workforces have declined by approximately 24,000 and 19,500 employees over the past decade and a half.
According to the American Petroleum Institute, these shifts reflect necessary workforce adjustments as new technologies reshape operational requirements. The association also pointed to emerging sectors, such as liquefied natural gas, which continue to support job opportunities.
Despite forecasted global cash flows of $542 billion for the energy industry this year—double previous estimates before the Iran conflict—capital expenditures, particularly upstream investments, are expected to decline slightly in 2026. Energy consultancy Wood Mackenzie projects global upstream spending to fall to $512 billion next year from $527 billion in 2025, partly due to project delays in the Middle East. In the US specifically, investment is expected to decrease from $127 billion to $124 billion, as continued efficiency efforts offset any increased budgets.
Market observers cite geopolitical uncertainties, including conflicts involving Iran and Russia-Ukraine, as well as trade tensions between Washington and countries like Canada, as factors contributing to cautious industry spending and hiring decisions. Michael Alfaro, chief investment officer at Gallo Partners, stated that persistent policy shifts have kept oil and gas management teams hesitant to commit to expanded capital expenditures or workforce increases in the near term.
Overall, while US oil and gas production and profits have surged, job creation in the sector has lagged, reflecting a complex interplay of technological advancement, corporate restructuring, and geopolitical uncertainty.