Jordan has issued strong warnings against any attempts by Israel to displace Palestinians into its territory, describing such actions as a red line that the kingdom will not allow to be crossed. Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi emphasized that forcibly transferring Palestinians to Jordan would violate international law, infringe on Palestinian rights to remain on their land, and represent a significant escalation in regional tensions.
Jordan, with a population of approximately 11.5 million, is home to a large number of Palestinians, who make up more than half its residents due to waves of refugee influxes over several decades. This demographic reality has heightened concerns among Jordan’s native “East Bankers” about maintaining the country’s social and national identity amid potential new pressures on resources and political stability.
Compounding these concerns is the recent reduction in water supplied by Israel. Israel has reinstated the original terms of the 1994 peace treaty regarding water sharing, providing 50 million cubic meters annually—half of what was agreed upon in a 2021 arrangement that supplied 100 million cubic meters. Jordan is among the most water-scarce countries globally, and the reduction severely undercuts its capacity to meet the needs of its growing population.
Reports indicate that Israel cut the water supply in response to Jordan’s criticism of Israel’s military actions in Gaza, which resulted in numerous Palestinian civilian deaths. Israeli officials have suggested that restoring water supplies could depend on Jordan’s recalibration of its public stance. This move has added political strain to the already delicate relationship between the two neighbors.
Tensions are also escalating due to Israeli activities in Jerusalem and the West Bank, including renewed settlement expansion and challenges to Jordan’s custodianship of Islamic holy sites such as the al-Aqsa mosque. Dima Tahboub, a member of the Jordanian parliament and spokesperson for the Islamist Umma party, linked increased anti-normalization sentiment in Jordan directly to these developments, including Israel’s plans to annex parts of the West Bank.
The Umma party, formerly known as the Islamic Action Front (IAF) and affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, has grown in influence amid the heightened conflict. It now holds about 22% of parliamentary seats, a development that surprised the Jordanian monarchy and has led to a slowdown in plans for political reform and greater parliamentary authority. Although the Muslim Brotherhood was outlawed last year and the party’s offices were raided, Umma was permitted to continue operating under its new name.
Tahboub acknowledged the Jordanian government’s challenges in confronting Israel’s actions, noting the country’s economic and security reliance on the United States. While Jordan has not allowed permanent U.S. military bases on its soil, it hosts a significant U.S. military presence, which has expanded since the onset of the conflict between the U.S. and Iran in the region. This presence has made Jordan a target of Iranian airstrikes, including recent attacks on the Muwaffaq Salti military base that caused American casualties.
Amman has sought to manage these complex dynamics carefully, balancing regional pressures and internal political shifts amid ongoing conflict and strained relations with Israel. The situation underscores the broader challenges faced by Jordan as it navigates its role in a volatile regional environment.