Prediction market platform Kalshi has initiated an investigation into a series of suspicious wagers related to the selection of Donald Trump’s new White House press secretary. The company is reviewing trades that anticipated Trump would choose conservative commentator Katie Zacharia for the role, according to a Kalshi spokeswoman, who declined to provide further details.
On Friday afternoon, news outlets including The New York Times reported that Zacharia had been appointed as the next White House press secretary. Prior to these announcements, at least three relatively small but well-timed bets were placed on Kalshi, positioning bettors to earn thousands of dollars if Zacharia was selected.
Data analyzed by the Wall Street Journal shows that a $19 wager was placed around 10:43 p.m. on Thursday, roughly 16 hours before the announcement, with a projected payout of $1,896. Additionally, two larger bets of approximately $74 and $80 were made around 1:41 p.m. on Friday, shortly before the news broke. These wagers are expected to yield payouts of $3,689 and $4,023 respectively.
Despite Zacharia’s brief tenure at the Department of Homeland Security and her visibility as a media commentator, she was not widely considered a leading candidate for the post. In the days leading up to the announcement, her chances were estimated at about 1 percent on Kalshi’s platform.
The White House did not respond to requests for comment on the matter. President Trump confirmed Zacharia’s appointment on his social media platform Truth Social on Friday afternoon, stating, “I am confident that Katie will deliver strong results for our Country.”
The rise of prediction markets has heightened concerns over the potential misuse of insider information. In a notable past incident, Gabriel Perez, the President’s teleprompter operator, was dismissed from his White House position after reportedly earning more than $100,000 from bets on Trump’s speeches. Perez subsequently reached a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which did not comment on the ongoing investigation.
Following a series of well-timed wagers connected to the Iran conflict, the White House issued a memo warning staff against leveraging non-public information for personal financial gain. Prediction markets, which allow users to speculate on a wide array of events ranging from sports outcomes to geopolitical developments, have increasingly drawn scrutiny for their vulnerability to insider trading.
Kalshi’s current inquiry underscores the challenges regulators and platforms face in ensuring fairness and integrity amid growing participation in real-money event betting.