A new study conducted by EY for the Institute of Grocery Distribution (IGD) highlights the growing risks that climate change poses to the UK’s food supply chain, with potential impacts on both availability and prices of key grocery items. The research warns that extreme weather events such as heatwaves, wildfires, and flooding will increasingly disrupt the production and sourcing of fresh food, particularly those imported from regions vulnerable to drought and climate instability.

The analysis quantifies the financial risks under two climate scenarios. If global emissions continue on their current trajectory and average temperatures rise as projected, the annual cost for ten core food products in the UK could increase by £2.6 billion by 2050. These products, including fresh fruits and vegetables like citrus, bananas, and tomatoes, are especially exposed due to reliance on imports from countries such as Spain, Morocco, and Brazil, where worsening drought conditions are expected. Conversely, the study suggests that meeting net zero emissions targets could reduce costs by approximately £23 million annually for the same food items.

IGD’s chief marketing officer, Kirsty Saddler, emphasized the importance of translating climate risks into monetary terms to better engage businesses. She noted that the findings underscore a commercial imperative for companies to invest in climate-related measures. EY partner Dr. Michael Green added that for an industry operating on “razor-thin margins,” understanding the concrete consequences of inaction is crucial. He further pointed out that while climate change is often discussed as a distant or abstract threat, the study reveals that some impacts are already becoming materially significant.

Recognizing the complexity of the challenge, EY developed a decarbonisation roadmap covering the entire UK food chain—from farming and transportation to reducing household waste. The initiative involves collaboration across the sector, with 20 companies participating in the climate risk assessment and steering groups set up to aid engagement rather than seek unanimous agreement on a single plan.

Saddler highlighted that, despite competitive pressures, there is a collective advantage in working together on climate change. “It does not diminish their competitive advantage—if anything it strengthens it, as these really are shared challenges,” she said. The collaborative approach aims to create a shared evidence base and identify priority actions where industry-wide efforts are necessary.

The study also raises wider concerns about the long-term affordability of a healthy diet in the UK. Green suggested that increasing domestic production of vulnerable crops might be part of the solution to buffer against international supply disruptions.

Overall, the findings illustrate a growing awareness within the grocery sector that climate change represents not only an ethical issue but also a critical business risk. “Sustainability is about resilience in the face of overwhelming uncertainty,” Green said, characterizing the challenge as existential for the industry.