Kemi Badenoch Boosts Conservatives as Polls Tighten

By the Editorial Team · Wednesday, September 23, 2026

Recent polling shows the Conservative Party and Reform UK tied at 21 percent support, with Labour narrowly leading at 23 percent, indicating a shift as former Reform voters return to the Tories amid ongoing controversies for Reform. This close race suggests a potential hung parliament in a future election, with coalitions likely necessary and key policy negotiations, including on Scottish independence, to follow.

The Conservative Party has drawn level with Reform UK in recent polling for the first time in 18 months, marking a notable shift in voter support ahead of the Conservative Party conference next month. A YouGov poll conducted over Sunday and Monday among 2,286 voters showed both parties at 21 percent, with the Conservatives gaining one point and Reform UK losing two. Labour maintains a narrow lead at 23 percent.

This shift comes during a challenging period for Reform UK, which has faced scrutiny over its finances and controversial donations, including £72 million from two cryptocurrency billionaires. The party has also been the subject of a Scotland Yard investigation related to these funds. Public perception of Reform may be changing; separate polling indicated that nearly 60 percent of voters consider the party corrupt, while only 18 percent disagreed. Additionally, 58 percent of voters said Reform does not represent people like them, compared to 27 percent who felt it did.

The decline in Reform’s popularity appears linked to multiple factors. Analysts note the emergence of the hard-right Restore Britain party, established by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, which has drawn some former Reform supporters. There is also speculation that changes in party leadership and ongoing controversies have discouraged voters. Former Conservative voters who supported Reform in the 2024 general election are gradually returning to the Tories. In April, about 34 percent of Tory voters intended to back Reform, a number that has dropped to 29 percent in recent polling.

Labour's slight lead comes after Andy Burnham replaced Sir Keir Starmer as Prime Minister, though the initial boost from his appointment now seems to be declining. If the current polling were to translate into a general election outcome, it could result in a hung parliament. Projections suggest Labour could secure around 221 seats, the Conservatives 148, Reform 120, Liberal Democrats 70, Greens and Scottish National Party (SNP) 34 each. Under such circumstances, Labour might seek to form a coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Greens, and possibly the SNP, raising questions about policy negotiations, including demands for a Scottish independence referendum or changes to the voting system.

Kemi Badenoch, the Conservative figure credited with this modest resurgence, has sought to differentiate the party by proposing tax cuts, contrasting with Labour’s focus on potential new levies. Meanwhile, Labour denies plans for an early election, with Burnham emphasizing his commitment to the 2024 manifesto and rejecting speculation about seeking a fresh mandate to bypass current manifesto commitments such as maintaining no income tax increases and upholding Brexit.

The Liberal Democrats and Greens saw minor fluctuations, with the Lib Dems dropping one point to 12 percent and the Greens rising three points to 14 percent. Restore Britain polled at 4 percent, reflecting its emerging role in the realignment of voter support on the right.

While the polling indicates a highly competitive environment among the main parties, analysts caution that the margins remain tight, and the political landscape could shift further as parties prepare for the coming months.

This article was reported by synthesizing coverage from multiple independent news outlets to present a balanced, unbiased account. Read about our editorial standards. Spotted an error? Let us know.