New Zealand is currently leading the competition to secure the 20th licence in the National Rugby League (NRL), with a proposed second Kiwi team reportedly ahead of bids from Queensland in the contest to expand the league. The Australian Rugby League (ARL) Commission is reportedly focused on international growth as part of a strategic plan linked to an anticipated record-breaking broadcast rights deal.

The NRL's forthcoming television contract, expected to exceed A$4 billion, is seen as a catalyst for expansion. Commission chairman Peter V’landys and NRL chief executive Andrew Abdo are in the final stages of negotiations for the deal, which may support the competition's growth to a 20-team format possibly by 2029. Broadcasters have shown interest in expansion, with one network advocating for a fifth Queensland franchise to join the existing four: Brisbane Broncos, Gold Coast Titans, North Queensland Cowboys, and Dolphins, which entered the league in 2023.

Despite this push from Queensland, sources close to the process suggest a second New Zealand team has the upper hand, aligning with the ARL Commission’s ambitions to increase the league’s offshore presence over the next five years. The NRL has also announced plans to integrate Papua New Guinea into the competition in 2028, demonstrating its broader Pacific expansion strategy. Additionally, V’landys is exploring the prospect of a global round, with potential matches in locations such as South Africa, England, Japan, and Singapore.

New Zealand’s role in the league’s expansion is underscored by the historic decision to host a State of Origin match—between New South Wales and Queensland—in Auckland’s Eden Park next season, marking the first time the event will be played outside Australia in its nearly five-decade history. The success of the New Zealand Warriors, the current Kiwi franchise, has been instrumental in building enthusiasm for a second team. The Warriors have drawn record crowds and strong television ratings, boosting confidence in further New Zealand participation.

The proposed site for a new franchise is Christchurch, with its recently completed $556 million One New Zealand Stadium seen as an ideal home venue. Opened in March, the stadium has a permanent capacity of 25,000, expandable to 30,000. Multiple consortiums from Christchurch, including the South Island Kea, are actively bidding for the licence. An ARL Commissioner’s recent visit to the stadium reflects the NRL’s due diligence, and V’landys, along with an NRL delegation, plan to return to New Zealand after the State of Origin series to continue assessments.

While V’landys has emphasized that a second New Zealand team would likely be based in the South Island to avoid diluting the Warriors’ support, the possibility of adding another Queensland team has not been dismissed. Brisbane’s western corridor Jets are positioning themselves for entry, with proposals aiming for inclusion by 2030, potentially timed with the Brisbane 2032 Olympics.

Queensland Rugby League chief executive Ben Ikin highlighted the state’s infrastructure advantage and readiness to accommodate another team, suggesting that the Dolphins’ successful recent entry illustrates Queensland’s viability for expansion. He added that teams in emerging markets like Perth and Papua New Guinea face greater challenges in establishing themselves, reinforcing the case for investing in more established regions.

The decision on the NRL’s 20th team is expected within the next few years as part of a broader strategy to leverage the impending broadcast deal and continue growing rugby league’s profile both domestically and internationally.