Russia is preparing for a significant increase in military spending over the next several years, with defence outlays expected to reach their highest level since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. Draft budget documents indicate that by 2027, military expenditures, including arms production, will total 17.1 trillion roubles (approximately £154 billion), accounting for around 35 percent of the overall state budget. This figure more than doubles the annual defence budget of the United Kingdom but remains considerably lower than United States military spending.
The allocation for defence and national security—which encompasses the police, national guard, and Kremlin security services—is projected to consume 43 percent of the state budget next year. Russia’s defence industry is operating at full capacity, manufacturing weapons to support ongoing military operations. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte noted in mid-2025 that Russia was producing three times more ammunition monthly than the combined annual output of member states, although by November, NATO reportedly surpassed Russia in production.
This defence budget represents the largest Russian military spending since the Soviet Union's dissolution in 1991. It coincides with heightened tensions between Moscow and Ukraine’s European allies, alongside warnings about potential challenges to NATO’s collective defence commitments. According to official projections, Russia’s defence expenditure could reach 50 trillion roubles in three years.
Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov recently acknowledged the focus on funding military efforts at the frontline, noting economic constraints require the government to find savings elsewhere. The draft budget is expected to be presented to the State Duma, Russia’s parliament, for approval soon.
Cuts to other sectors have accompanied the surge in military spending. Health care funding has been slashed from 38 percent of the budget before the invasion to 25 percent currently. Some regions have reduced health expenditures by more than one-third this year amid the economic strains of ongoing conflict. Researchers estimate that Russia has spent over £400 billion on the war since 2022—an amount comparable to two decades of health care investment.
The increased military spending is anticipated to pressure Russia’s economy further, likely resulting in higher borrowing, increased taxes, and inflation. Analysts have characterized the budget as a strategy of prioritizing military engagement over economic stability, potentially compromising the country's financial future.
President Vladimir Putin has shown no indication of moving towards peace negotiations, instead framing Western support for Kyiv as an existential threat. This month, he issued a stark warning to Western nations, describing them as “sharks of imperialism” and cautioning that their efforts to undermine Russia would ultimately fail.
Relations between Moscow and Washington have also deteriorated, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov criticizing the U.S. for sanctions and not pressuring Ukraine on territorial concessions. Lavrov noted that former President Donald Trump had framed the conflict as Biden’s war, but that the current administration now bears responsibility as well.
Military activity remains intense. Recent drone attacks on Kyiv and strikes targeting Ukrainian infrastructure have foreshadowed a challenging winter, with concerns about deterioration in industrial output, including a notable halt in steel production for the first time in a century.
On Monday, Putin authorized an increase in active-duty forces by 15,500 personnel, bringing the total to 1,550,500. This is the fourth troop expansion since the war began. With approximately 700,000 Russian troops deployed in Ukraine, there are apprehensions about possible further mobilizations.
Following Russia’s recent parliamentary elections, which were widely criticized as lacking fairness, Putin hailed his ruling party’s victory as evidence of popular support for the war effort. The only anti-war party, Yabloko, was disqualified from participating, and prominent critics of the election process have faced arrest and assault, raising human rights concerns amid the continuing conflict.