Since Andy Burnham took over as Labour leader in July, the party has seen a notable increase in national support, though experts caution that significant challenges remain ahead. Polling data from More in Common indicates Labour’s national voting intention has risen from an average of 22 percent before Burnham’s leadership to 28 percent more recently. Despite this improvement, analysts warn that Labour is not in a secure position to call an early election.

Burnham’s personal approval ratings have remained relatively steady following last week’s budget, with 42 percent of respondents expressing satisfaction with his performance and 30 percent disapproving. Meanwhile, ratings for John Healey, the chancellor, and Kemi Badenoch, leader of the opposition Conservative Party, have shown little movement. However, confidence in Healey’s management of the economy remains low, with just 22 percent approving and 29 percent disapproving, according to polling from More in Common and the UCL Policy Lab. A majority, at 60 percent, judged the budget as offering only minor adjustments.

Luke Tryl, UK director at More in Common, noted that focus groups viewed Burnham as a leader who “comes across really strongly” and understands voters’ concerns but flagged worries about his reluctance to make tough decisions. The energy rebate of £100 for 80 percent of households was regarded as a positive gesture but insufficient to address deeper economic issues. Tryl also observed that compared to the public reception of the previous year’s budget, Burnham and Healey have so far avoided significant criticism.

Rob Ford, politics professor at the University of Manchester, highlighted that while Labour’s support has improved, it remains modest by historical standards. He pointed out that polling in the low thirties would previously have been considered weak for one of the country’s two main parties. Labour’s current standing remains about six points lower than at the 2024 general election. Ford also noted that government satisfaction has risen slightly, a challenge for Badenoch and the Conservatives amid their own struggles to boost support.

Pollsters identified several factors that may deter the government from calling a snap election soon, despite ongoing speculation in Westminster. Labour has deferred decisions on key policy areas such as welfare, social care, voting reform, and defense spending, raising questions about voter response once these issues are addressed. Tryl described welfare and defense as “two big Achilles’ heels” for Burnham, with electorate sentiment seeming to shift toward lower taxes and welfare cuts.

Labour’s geographic support pattern also remains uneven. While the party has made gains in the northwest of England, Wales, and the northeast, progress in Scotland has been limited, with only a 2-point increase since May. Although Burnham is Labour’s most popular leader north of the border, he still trails significantly behind the Scottish National Party in polls. Labour won 37 seats in Scotland in 2024 but has yet to make significant inroads against the SNP.

Analysts further noted that the “Burnham bounce” largely reflects regained support from left-leaning voters rather than centre or right-wing constituencies. Tryl emphasized the need for Labour to broaden its appeal beyond its traditional base to consolidate gains.

Another key consideration is the clarity of Labour’s message to the electorate. Ford referenced the recent British Columbia provincial election, where the incumbent was punished for approaching a snap vote perceived as politically opportunistic. He cautioned that unless Burnham can offer a clear and compelling rationale for an election — akin to the 2019 Conservative campaign focusing on Brexit — Labour could face similar setbacks.

Overall, while Labour under Burnham has gained momentum, experts advise caution about overestimating current polling gains and highlight ongoing risks that could undermine further progress.