Labour is poised to suffer significant losses in the upcoming local elections on May 7, potentially marking the party’s worst performance in decades, according to an analysis of recent polling data. The elections, covering council seats across England and devolved parliaments in Wales and Scotland, suggest a sharp decline in Labour’s support, intensifying pressure on Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s leadership.

Polling indicates a dramatic drop in Labour’s vote share, particularly in Wales, where the party has maintained dominance in the Senedd since its establishment in 1999. The data shows Labour’s support falling by more than half, possibly relegating the party to third place behind Reform UK and Plaid Cymru. In Scotland, Labour’s decline appears set to continue, with the Scottish National Party (SNP) expected to retain control of Holyrood and Reform UK emerging as the second-largest party.

In England, Labour faces mounting challenges across 136 council races, including traditional strongholds in London and the north. Although consistent polling at the local level remains limited, Labour’s overall national polling decline, coupled with gains for Reform, the Greens, Liberal Democrats, and independents, points to potentially unprecedented losses. Stephen Fisher, professor of political sociology at the University of Oxford, projects Labour could lose approximately 1,900 council seats on May 7—about 74% of those up for re-election. This would be the worst local election outcome for any governing prime minister since comparable records have been maintained.

Conversely, Reform UK is forecast to make significant advances, with an estimated gain of 2,260 council seats, effectively tripling its local government representation in England. The Greens and Liberal Democrats are also expected to increase their presence by roughly 450 and 200 seats, respectively. The Conservative Party, meanwhile, faces a predicted net loss of 1,010 councillors, signifying widespread dissatisfaction with the two dominant parties.

Fisher noted that Reform UK’s performance could outperform last year’s record-breaking 41% share of the seats contested if they sustain their current polling momentum. If sustained, this dynamic would lead to “enormous losses for the Conservatives and unprecedented losses for Labour.”

The scale of Labour’s anticipated losses may renew calls for a leadership challenge against Starmer, who has recently faced criticism over the appointment of Peter Mandelson as UK ambassador to the United States. Reports that Mandelson failed to secure the necessary security clearance have intensified scrutiny on Starmer amid opposition demands for his resignation.

While Labour’s projected electoral setback is clear, its implications for Starmer’s tenure remain uncertain. The prime minister’s prospects had improved following his administration’s cautious stance on the recent US-Israeli conflict involving Iran, which temporarily reduced public disapproval during March. However, that shift appears to be reversing, and current polls have yet to fully incorporate the fallout from the Mandelson controversy.

Overall, the May 7 elections are shaping up to be a pivotal moment for British politics, with longstanding parties facing disruption and renewed challenges to Starmer’s leadership amid growing voter discontent.