Labour is facing growing pressure following a series of recent electoral setbacks, highlighted by the party’s disappointing performance in the Aberdeen South by-election on June 18. The result has intensified internal debate over the party’s energy policies and leadership future as it prepares for the next general election.

The Aberdeen South outcome, where Labour’s stance against new oil and gas exploration licences in the North Sea came under scrutiny, has raised concerns among party members and analysts alike. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, a prominent figure within Labour, supports maintaining the ban on new fossil fuel licences, a position highlighted in the King’s Speech. However, critics argue this approach risks increasing the UK’s dependence on imported energy, potentially undermining national security. Miliband’s opposition to expanding North Sea oil and gas exploration has been linked to Labour’s poor showing in the by-election, prompting calls for a reassessment of the party’s energy strategy.

Sir John Curtice, an election expert, suggested that developing an economic policy that broadly addresses voters’ financial worries could offer the Conservative Party a pathway back to electoral competitiveness, while intensifying debates over the UK’s energy future. Former Labour leader Sir Tony Blair recently advocated for a pragmatic approach, urging the UK to utilize existing oil and gas reserves alongside investments in electrification and affordable energy, rather than focusing solely on net-zero targets.

Labour’s response to criticism of its energy policy highlighted the party’s pledge to invest in home-grown clean energy to reduce bills. In a statement, the party accused the Conservatives of leaving families burdened with high energy costs and failing to secure long-term energy stability during their 14 years in power. Shadow Energy Secretary Kemi Badenoch’s party argued new North Sea licences would not lower household energy bills, defending Labour’s emphasis on renewables.

Meanwhile, internal tensions over leadership have intensified following Andy Burnham’s decisive victory in the Makerfield by-election on June 15. His success has prompted calls from within Labour for Sir Keir Starmer to clarify his future plans amid speculation about a leadership challenge. Former Justice Secretary Lord Falconer described Starmer’s position as "completely unmaintainable," though Starmer has insisted he will remain in post and urged party unity in the wake of electoral disappointments.

Some senior figures, including Home Office Minister Mike Tapp, have expressed opposition to leadership change, warning of political instability and potential pressure from Reform UK for an early general election. Others, like former Home Secretary Alan Johnson, have publicly suggested Starmer’s leadership is effectively over, while noting his role in Labour’s recent electoral recovery.

Burnham’s allies are reportedly preparing to present Starmer with significant parliamentary backing for a leadership contest. At the same time, voices within Labour, such as former safeguarding minister Jess Phillips, endorse a contest but advocate avoiding a destructive internal struggle.

Looking ahead, Burnham’s potential premiership raises questions about his prospective cabinet, with key figures under consideration for top roles. Ed Miliband is viewed as a front-runner for Chancellor, while Shabana Mahmood may remain at the Home Office due to her stance on immigration, a critical issue ahead of the next election. Other influential figures include Louise Haigh, Lisa Nandy, and John Healey, whose return as Defence Secretary is seen as important amid ongoing concerns about national security and military funding.

As Labour grapples with its direction on energy policy and leadership stability, the party faces a critical period to consolidate support and define a clear vision in the run-up to the July 30 mayoral election in Greater Manchester and beyond. The Greens, eyeing the same contest, have announced Geraldine Coggins as their candidate, aiming to build on recent by-election successes.