New polling of Labour Party members reveals a more cautious attitude toward welfare spending than commonly portrayed, alongside strong support for increased defence funding and recognition of climate change as a significant national challenge.

Conducted in July by the thinktank ThinkLabour, the survey gathered responses from 788 party members. Health was seen as the highest priority for 43% of respondents, followed closely by the economy (42%), the cost of living (39%), and climate change (29%). In contrast, welfare benefits and immigration rated lower, at 7% and 6% respectively.

Nearly half of those surveyed (47%) believe the government currently allocates too much funding to welfare, while 21% argue it does not spend enough in this area. When questioned about how to finance existing welfare expenditure, 52% supported raising taxes, with 70% of that group favouring higher taxes exclusively for high earners and 24% backing tax increases across all income groups.

Members exhibited strong support for increased social care spending, with 73% endorsing the idea of additional funding through higher taxes, whether targeted at higher earners or applied more broadly. Defence spending also attracted considerable backing, with 68% calling for greater investment, and 61% of these supporting funding through tax hikes.

The poll results indicate that three-quarters of current Labour members had voted for Keir Starmer in the 2020 leadership contest. While the survey did not directly assess views on Andy Burnham’s leadership since he succeeded the role, earlier polling carried out before Labour’s poor showing in local elections showed Burnham possessing a net favourability rating of 72%, suggesting strong potential for party-wide support.

ThinkLabour, formerly known as Labour Together, has become increasingly influential within Burnham’s team. Its former chief executive Alison Phillips now serves as Burnham’s deputy chief of staff, and JP Spencer, previously its director of devolution, works at Downing Street North. The thinktank’s interim chief executive Ed Owen, who advised Labour during Tony Blair’s era, confirmed that these survey findings have been shared with senior Downing Street strategists.

Christabel Cooper, ThinkLabour’s interim director of political strategy, said the data challenges assumptions about Labour members’ views on welfare policy. “Labour members have a tougher view on welfare than you might think,” she said, highlighting the dual recognition among members of the need to manage welfare spending carefully while maintaining strong defence in an uncertain global context.

This survey follows ThinkLabour’s recent report, “Who Is Labour For?”, which emphasized that Labour’s electoral prospects depend on uniting voters grappling with financial pressures alongside those prioritizing healthcare and immigration issues. The findings have been circulated within Downing Street and received public commendation from Labour deputy leader Lucy Powell.