New polling conducted by a thinktank closely linked to Andy Burnham’s administration indicates that the Labour Party could face significant losses to the Green parties in upcoming elections. The survey, focused on urban constituencies across the United Kingdom, reveals that the Greens are trailing Labour by just four percentage points, suggesting the possibility that the Greens could win as many as 40 seats if this trend continues.

The report highlights a growing shift among urban voters toward the Green parties since the 2024 general election. This trend poses a particular challenge for Labour in retaining key seats such as Holborn and St Pancras, where the Greens’ leader for England and Wales, Zack Polanski, is expected to contest a byelection next month.

Authors of the study advise Labour to reduce direct confrontations with Green candidates, warning that aggressive attacks risk alienating progressive voters. One of the report’s co-authors, Christabel Cooper, explained that Labour’s prior strategy under Keir Starmer, which sought to dissuade Green voters by suggesting a vote for the Greens might lead to Nigel Farage becoming prime minister, no longer resonates in many urban areas. She stated that in the identified seats, the Greens have positioned themselves as the preferred progressive option.

Cooper added that progressive voters tend to react negatively to what they perceive as harsh criticism of the Greens. "The sorts of people who would consider voting Labour consider attacking the Greens like kicking a puppy," she noted, reflecting a wider sentiment that progressive politics should emphasize civility and mutual respect.

The findings come as Labour strategists based at Downing Street work to consolidate polling gains attributed to Burnham’s early tenure as prime minister. The thinktank behind the research, ThinkLabour, maintains strong connections to Burnham’s government, with former chief executive Alison Phillips now serving as the prime minister’s chief of staff, alongside several other former ThinkLabour staffers holding senior government roles.

The research was conducted around the time Burnham assumed office in September, underscoring Labour’s ongoing challenge to maintain the support of urban progressive voters who were instrumental in its previous electoral victories. As the Greens increase their foothold in cities and urban regions, Labour faces mounting pressure to adapt its campaign strategies ahead of forthcoming elections.