The Makerfield by-election, held on Thursday in the Greater Manchester constituency, has become a focal point of internal Labour Party tensions and could significantly influence the party’s leadership landscape. The contest was triggered when sitting Labour MP Josh Simons stepped down after less than two years to allow Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to return to the Commons. Burnham is widely viewed as a leading contender to challenge Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer for the Labour leadership.

Polling took place amid intensifying infighting within Labour, with multiple Cabinet and ministerial resignations having recently shaken the party. Starmer’s leadership has come under increasing scrutiny both from opposition parties and within his own ranks, as Labour’s poll ratings have declined and backbenchers openly debate his future. The by-election, involving approximately 75,000 voters roughly 200 miles northwest of London, is seen as a potential turning point.

Burnham, who has not served in Parliament since 2017, has campaigned on a platform of party renewal and positioned himself as a candidate of change. Supporters argue Burnham benefits from not being associated with the government’s recent difficulties. Ahead of the vote, reports indicated Starmer had offered Burnham a senior Cabinet role if he returned to Parliament, but Burnham’s camp reportedly dismissed the offer, emphasizing a desire for change rather than continuity.

The race saw competition from several parties, including Reform UK, which is accused of splitting the right-wing vote alongside the Conservatives and the Green Party, capitalizing on Labour’s internal issues. Reform’s candidate, Rob Kenyon, was regarded as Burnham’s closest rival, with betting odds reflecting a strong lead for Burnham.

In preparation for a potential leadership bid, Burnham has enlisted fiscal advisors, including Richard Hughes, a former chair of the Office for Budget Responsibility, to navigate financial policy challenges, particularly borrowing and market reactions, should he become prime minister.

Simultaneously, former Health Secretary Wes Streeting is reportedly preparing to mount a leadership challenge regardless of the by-election’s outcome. This suggests that the contest is only the first stage in what may become a protracted Labour leadership battle.

Sources indicate that some Labour ministers supportive of Burnham had considered resigning from their government posts ahead of the by-election to increase pressure on Starmer but were persuaded not to proceed immediately to avoid destabilizing the party before the vote.

Following the count, expected to conclude in the early hours of Friday, Starmer has vowed to remain in his post and contest any leadership challenge, with plans to speak to Burnham after the weekend. The result will be closely scrutinized not only for its immediate electoral impact but also for its implications on the future direction and leadership of the Labour Party.