The United Kingdom is facing a significant increase in the number of migrants eligible to apply for indefinite leave to remain (ILR), raising concerns about the economic and social impact of permanent settlement rights. According to Home Office projections, between 1.6 million and 2.2 million migrants could obtain ILR from this year through 2030, a rise partly driven by a surge in arrivals following the COVID-19 pandemic.
Under current immigration rules, migrants can apply for ILR after five years of lawful residence in the UK, enabling them to live permanently and access state benefits, including welfare support and social housing. However, this pathway has drawn criticism due to the potential financial burden on public services, especially as a portion of migrants may be low-paid or unemployed.
During the pandemic, migration levels fell significantly but rebounded sharply afterward, with over one million migrants arriving in the post-COVID period. The first cohorts from this recent influx are now reaching their five-year eligibility for ILR, with applications expected to peak around 2028. Projections suggest annual ILR approvals could increase from approximately 140,000 last year to nearly 450,000 at the peak.
A notable driver of this growth is the health and care worker visa category, introduced to address shortages in the social care sector. While only around 6,000 care visa holders were eligible to apply for ILR last year, this number is expected to reach 210,000 by 2028. Additionally, many care visa recipients have brought dependants, further expanding the numbers in this group. Some reports have highlighted administrative challenges and concerns over fraudulent applications within this visa stream, as well as instances where care visa holders have subsequently sought asylum.
In response to these developments, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood previously proposed extending the qualifying period for ILR from five years to ten years, with a longer period—up to 15 years—for low-skilled workers and additional penalties for those claiming benefits over extended periods. High earners paying higher tax rates might receive accelerated pathways to settlement under these proposals. Mahmood described the existing system as a potential strain on public finances, estimating that the post-pandemic migrant cohort could cost taxpayers around £10 billion.
However, the current political climate appears to have shifted these plans. Following leadership changes within the Labour Party—particularly Andy Burnham’s influence—the original proposals have reportedly been scaled back. Senior Labour figures, including Angela Rayner and Miatta Fahnbulleh, have criticized the proposed ILR restrictions as counterproductive or “un-British,” emphasizing social cohesion rather than tightened immigration controls.
Critics of the Labour Party argue that the lack of rigorous reform will exacerbate the economic problems linked to the growing migrant population and strain on public services, pointing to high numbers of migrants relying on welfare and social housing. Supporters of a more lenient approach stress the importance of integration and fairness, highlighting that many migrants contribute to essential sectors and communities.
The government under Prime Minister Rishi Sunak has introduced additional visa restrictions to reduce immigration levels following the pandemic spike. Nonetheless, the delayed nature of ILR eligibility means that the full impact of recent migration patterns on permanent settlement and public expenditure is only now becoming evident.
As the debate continues, officials face the challenge of balancing economic concerns, social cohesion, and humanitarian considerations in shaping future immigration policy.