The market for large natural diamonds remains resilient despite recent broader declines in diamond prices, industry insiders report. While smaller stones have experienced significant depreciation, the value of exceptionally large and rare diamonds is holding steady, and in some cases showing signs of recovery.
David Tubego, large stones manager at De Beers, said that prices for sizeable diamonds have dropped only 5 to 10 percent over the past three years and have begun to increase since the start of 2024. Analysts describe this phenomenon as a “K-shaped” market, where prices of small and large stones are diverging, with the latter segment maintaining stronger demand and value.
The trend toward appreciating vintage and antique diamonds has also gained traction, fueled in part by celebrity influence. Taylor Swift’s recent engagement gift—a roughly eight-carat repurposed diamond cut in the “old mine brilliant” style dating back to the 18th century—helped boost market interest in antique stones. This event notably raised the stock value of American jewelry retailer Signet, despite the company not dealing in vintage gems directly.
Amid this landscape, the newly discovered Motswedi diamond, weighing an extraordinary 2,488 carats, has drawn significant attention within the industry. It is now considered the world’s second-largest diamond discovered to date, after the 3,106-carat Cullinan stone from 1905. Mansori, a representative involved in the stone’s handling, disclosed that multiple potential buyers have emerged, including museum treasurers, wealthy families, sovereign wealth funds, and art collectors. He anticipates the Motswedi will surpass previous record prices paid for similar large stones.
To provide context, previous notable large diamonds include the Sewelo, a 1,758-carat stone mined by Lucara Diamonds in Botswana in 2019 and sold to luxury conglomerate LVMH in 2020, now displayed in the company’s Paris museum. The 2017 sale of the 1,111-carat Lesedi La Rona to British jeweler Graf reached $53 million, while the 813-carat Constellation diamond sold the year before for $63 million to a dealer linked to a Swiss jeweler in Dubai. Using these benchmarks, industry estimates place the potential value of the Motswedi in the range of $190 million or more.
Technological innovation is also shaping the diamond sector’s future, as firms seek to increase transparency and combat challenges around provenance and corruption. Mansori’s company, HB Antwerp, employs blockchain technology to assign unique digital codes to each diamond alongside internet-connected lock boxes secured by biometric access, ensuring that only authorized individuals involved in the stone’s journey can access it. While De Beers also uses blockchain platforms, its reliance on manual data uploads has raised concerns about accuracy and vulnerability.
Overall, while the diamond market grapples with price volatility and shifting consumer preferences, the allure and value of large, rare natural diamonds appear largely intact, supported by a blend of tradition, innovation, and continued interest from high-net-worth buyers.
