With the Victorian state election just over a month away, new polling indicates a significant shift in voter sentiment, positioning the opposition Coalition to end 12 years of Labor government. The latest Newspoll, conducted from October 12 to 16, shows the Liberal-National Coalition led by Jess Wilson with a 55-45 two-party-preferred advantage over Premier Ben Carroll’s Labor party, marking a 10-point swing since the 2022 election.
The poll reveals a dramatic decline in Labor’s primary vote, falling from 37 percent in 2022 to 24 percent, while the Coalition’s primary support has edged up to 33 percent. One Nation, which did not contest the previous election, now polls at 20 percent, and the Greens have also increased slightly to 14 percent. Despite the rise of One Nation, the Coalition appears capable of securing a majority government without their support, a development Labor contends is unlikely. Premier Carroll continues to assert that Wilson would need to form a coalition with One Nation to govern, framing the election as a choice between Labor and a "Liberal-One Nation coalition" that he says would harm working people.
However, the poll suggests many voters prefer a Coalition government even if it involves One Nation, with 28 percent expressing this preference compared to 19 percent who favor a Labor majority government. Labor’s focus on warning about a potential Coalition-One Nation alliance has drawn criticism from some analysts who argue it may distract from addressing substantive policy questions such as managing Victoria’s debt, funding infrastructure projects like the Suburban Rail Loop, and economic recovery following pandemic-related challenges.
Jess Wilson, who took over leadership of the Liberal Party after internal changes, has seen her approval ratings rise to 48 percent, compared to Carroll’s 34 percent. Despite Carroll’s personal improvement in approval since succeeding Jacinta Allan, Labor continues to face declining support, with 58 percent of voters dissatisfied with its performance. Former Premier Daniel Andrews’ legacy also appears to weigh heavily on Labor’s prospects, with six in ten Victorians viewing his tenure unfavorably in retrospect.
Victoria’s economic situation is a critical backdrop to the election. The state’s debt has reached $160.7 billion and is projected to climb further, with an increasing portion of operating revenue devoted to interest payments. This financial context positions economic management as a central electoral issue, with Wilson expected to focus on restoring fiscal responsibility while avoiding the shortcomings of previous Coalition policies that attempted to match Labor’s extensive spending promises.
Labor has responded to the looming electoral challenge with campaign commitments including "free dental," increased police and nurses, capped transport fares, and road repairs. Nevertheless, analysts caution that these pledges may not be sufficient to reverse the broader voter disillusionment highlighted by the polling data.
The upcoming election is likely to be influenced not only by the overall state trends but also by local factors, candidate contests, and the evolving role of One Nation and independents. If the poll’s uniform swing translated statewide, Labor could be reduced to as few as 25 seats from the current 56, while the Coalition could secure upwards of 60 seats in the Legislative Assembly, surpassing the 45 needed for majority government.
As campaigning intensifies over the next month, voters will be watching closely to see which party presents the most credible and competent leadership to address Victoria’s economic challenges and restore confidence in government.