Latvian Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs’ centrist United List alliance appeared poised for a decisive victory in the parliamentary elections held on October 3, according to exit polls released shortly after voting concluded. The exit poll indicated that United List secured approximately 35.6% of the vote, positioning it as the dominant party in the 100-seat Saeima, Latvia’s parliament.

Following United List, the populist nationalist party Latvia First was projected to receive about 11.3% of the vote, narrowly ahead of the left-wing Progressives with 11.1%, and the right-wing populist Sovereign Power party at 10.8%. Two of United List’s current coalition partners were also expected to surpass the parliamentary threshold: the national-conservative National Alliance with 8.7% and the liberal-conservative New Unity with 6.7%. The projections suggested that six parties could enter the new parliament.

Prime Minister Kulbergs, whose alliance is characterized by a pro-Ukraine stance amid ongoing regional tensions, welcomed the exit poll results but emphasized that the coalition would still require partners to form a government as United List fell short of an outright majority. Kulbergs also expressed reluctance to collaborate with Latvia First despite its strong showing, signaling complexities in coalition-building efforts.

The election campaign was largely influenced by security concerns related to Russia’s ongoing war against Ukraine and its potential threat to Latvian national security. Authorities in Latvia and other Baltic states have warned of increased Russian sabotage, cyberattacks, and other hybrid tactics aimed at destabilizing the region and undermining support for Ukraine. Russia denies these allegations.

Approximately 1.5 million voters were eligible to participate in the election. Around 6,500 voters were surveyed for the exit poll, though analysts cautioned that exit poll accuracy has been inconsistent in previous Latvian elections. Official results were expected to be announced on the following day. The geopolitical situation and these election outcomes are closely watched in the region due to Latvia’s strategic position bordering Russia and Belarus.