Marine Le Pen’s political prospects in the upcoming French presidential election have significantly improved following a recent court ruling that lifted her electoral ban, positioning her as a more formidable contender than her younger successor, Jordan Bardella.
On July 7, an appeals court in Paris overturned a five-year ban on Le Pen’s participation in electoral politics, a sanction initially imposed due to a fraud conviction related to the misuse of European Parliament funds exceeding €4 million. While the court did not acquit her, it ruled that the decision to elect the president belongs to voters rather than judicial bodies and reduced her ban to the period already served. Le Pen remains twice convicted of embezzlement and faces a pending appeal with the French highest court.
Despite this legal backdrop, opinion polls conducted since the lifting of her ban indicate she could defeat key rivals, including centrist candidates aiming to succeed President Emmanuel Macron. In particular, an Ifop survey projected Le Pen leading former Prime Minister Édouard Philippe by 54% to 46% in a second-round head-to-head matchup. She holds similar support among voters over the age of 65, a demographic that regularly exhibits high turnout rates and had previously been less receptive to far-right candidates.
Le Pen, who has held political office continuously since 1998, runs as a staunch outsider critical of the political elite. Following the court ruling, her National Rally party adopted the slogan “Renaissance,” framing her personal comeback as symbolic of a potential revival of France itself. Senior French political figures have described her as a resilient figure, suggesting she now occupies a more prominent position than Bardella, who at 31 remains relatively untested on the national stage and was seen as less intimidating by opponents.
Bardella, who had attempted to steer the National Rally toward a more traditional right-wing, pro-market stance inspired by Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, saw his appeal weaken amid concerns about his experience and presidential stature. Le Pen’s return to leadership signals a reinstatement of her more combative approach toward the European Union, which includes antagonistic policies aimed at dismantling EU structures from within.
Economic issues could be decisive for older voters, as Le Pen’s past debate performances on fiscal matters have been widely criticized. The National Rally’s economic platform continues to be a blend of high social spending with calls for tax reductions and protectionist measures, generating skepticism among voters concerned about France’s €3.5 trillion public debt and ongoing fiscal challenges.
Le Pen’s campaign counters that Macron’s centrist governance has failed to curb rising debt and economic stagnation, positioning her as a pragmatic alternative capable of delivering change. However, analysts warn that a far-right presidency under Le Pen could lead France—and by extension the European Union—into uncertain and potentially destabilizing political terrain.
While her victory is not guaranteed, Marine Le Pen’s resurgence represents a marked shift in French politics, eliminating earlier doubts about the National Rally’s ability to mount a credible presidential challenge. Her enhanced profile complicates the prospect for traditional parties and marks a potentially transformative moment ahead of next year’s election.