Hong Kong Chief Executive John Lee Ka-chiu is set to unveil new measures aimed at addressing the challenges faced by under-enrolled public schools and the city’s declining birth rate in his upcoming policy address. According to government sources, the plan will include expanded incentives to encourage the merger of subsidised schools struggling with shrinking student populations, alongside housing initiatives and tax relief to support families and promote higher birth rates.

Currently, primary schools that merge with other institutions to accommodate affected students receive a one-off allowance of HK$1 million to cover additional costs such as transportation and new study materials. In March, the Education Bureau announced that 15 primary schools would be barred from operating subsidised Primary One classes for the current academic year due to insufficient enrolment—fewer than 16 pupils each. Of these, eight schools have opted to merge, four will close after three years, two plan to continue with private Primary One classes, and one is in the process of merging. The bureau expects the situation to worsen in the coming years, as the birth rate continues to decline significantly. The number of six-year-old children entering primary school is projected to drop by 16% to approximately 31,500 by 2029, down from 37,600 pupils this academic year.

Jessie Cheung Chok-fong, a consultant at the Subsidised Primary Schools Council and a serving principal, explained that merging schools typically use the government allowance to cover pupil-related expenses incurred through mergers, including transportation between districts and costs for new textbooks and uniforms. She noted that while additional resources are helpful, schools often carefully weigh the financial support offered before deciding to merge.

For secondary schools, those that continue to operate Form One classes after a merger receive a one-time payment of HK$500,000 per merged grade level. However, mergers at the secondary level remain less common, with only six government and Caritas-operated schools participating in recent years. The decline in secondary school applicants is less immediate than in primary schools, as the drop in birth rates began in 2017. Secondary schools now face survival pressures if they cannot recruit at least 29 students for two Form One classes.

To address the broader challenge of Hong Kong’s shrinking birth rate, the government plans to introduce additional tax incentives and housing measures to support families, moving beyond previous cash handouts. Despite the government's 2023 introduction of a “baby bonus” providing HK$20,000 to new parents, birth rates have continued to fall. Between mid-2025 and mid-2026, Hong Kong recorded a record low of 29,700 births, a 15.6% decline from the previous year.

Chief Executive Lee previously acknowledged that delayed marriage and changing cultural attitudes are major factors limiting the effectiveness of current pro-birth policies. He pointed out that the median age for first marriage has risen to 32.6 for men and 31 for women in 2025, reflecting longer career development and higher education pursuits. Additionally, he noted a shift away from traditional views that children are essential for elderly care, with greater emphasis now placed on personal ambitions. The government plans to launch a public consultation on its comprehensive pro-birth incentive package in the near future.