Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s standing appears to be gaining traction after a period of uncertainty following his government’s recent budget. Recent polling data from Newspoll and RedBridge indicates a modest recovery in support for the government, with Newspoll recording the government’s primary vote at 33 percent—close to the 34.5 percent achieved at the last federal election in May 2022. While it is premature to declare the budget a political success, particularly given contentious measures such as proposed capital gains tax increases, the immediate electoral impact has not been as severe as initially feared.

Albanese’s improved position is partly attributed to challenges facing the opposition parties. The Coalition, in particular, has come under scrutiny following public discussions about possible alliances with Pauline Hanson’s One Nation party. Hanson’s appearance at the National Press Club has underscored the political risks for Coalition members who have voiced interest in cooperation with One Nation, as the Labor Party has made Hanson’s statements a focal point of criticism. Moreover, internal tensions within the Coalition have been highlighted by the convergence of views on key issues like industrial relations, where many Liberal members reportedly align closely with Hanson’s positions.

Adding to the Coalition’s difficulties, the New South Wales Independent Commission Against Corruption (ICAC) announced it will conduct eight weeks of hearings into allegations of corrupt conduct within the NSW Liberal Party. The inquiry, focusing on the party’s Right faction, will examine several serious claims. Among these are allegations that between 2019 and 2023, individuals including Jean-Claude Perrottet—brother of former NSW Premier Dominic Perrottet—solicited or accepted prohibited political donations intended, in part, to support recruitment and renewal of party membership. The ICAC will also investigate alleged prohibited donations connected to Charles Perrottet, another of Dominic Perrottet’s brothers, and potential use of such funds for branch stacking purposes.

Further allegations relate to purported financial transactions aimed at undermining former ministers David Elliott and Building Commissioner David Chandle, as well as misconduct linked to the Strathfield Council. While some of these probes had been anticipated within political circles, the revelation of payments involving Catholic Schools NSW has elicited significant concern. ICAC claims that donations were made through arrangements approved by Dallas McInerney, the organisation’s chief executive officer, for purposes that included Liberal Party membership activities.

McInerney is regarded as a highly influential figure within the NSW Liberal Right faction and is considered a key ally of federal Energy Minister Angus Taylor. The possibility that he is implicated in these investigations has surprised many in NSW political circles and expanded the scope of the inquiry beyond previously assumed targets. The unfolding ICAC hearings have dominated party discussions and intensified scrutiny on the NSW Liberal Party’s internal operations.

These developments have bolstered the perception of Albanese’s political advantage amid opposition turbulence. While the government’s position remains precarious in some respects, the combination of polling improvements and opposition strife offers the prime minister reason for cautious optimism.